With the New Year comes new opportunities, new resolutions, and new matchups that give us an edge in player prop betting. Our Sporting News expert betting team has a resolution: To crush the SuperDraft player prop market in each of the five remaining weekends of meaningful NFL football. That goal starts now, as we unveil our favorite over/under bets for Week 18.
All season long, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, and Nick Brinkerhoff have joined me on Friday to scour SuperDraft and pinpoint the over/under props that we believe yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning, just like our weekly best bets column unveils the top moneyline, spread, and over/under picks.
Each of us typically unveils three over/under props per week — at least a dozen total — from the vast main-slate offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.
Along the way, we keep a record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to boost their New Year's bankrolls!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Take a look at the updated standings after Week 17 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 17 | Overall |
| Sloan Piva | 1-2 | 28-21 |
| Nick Musial | 2-1 | 25-21 |
| Vinnie Iyer | 0-3 | 24-21 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 1-2 | 16-32 |
Brutal run. D'Andre Swift left me hanging in what should have been an easy rushing yards OVER against the Cardinals, then Chris Olave did bubkis against the Bucs. Vinnie got skunked (which is rare) because he picked Bijan Robinson's receiving yards OVER rather than his rushing yards OVER, and also because he backed the equally-disappointing Travis Kelce and Ty Chandler. Muse got burned by Kyle Pitts' five-yard performance, but he cruised on OVER totals for Terry McLaurin and Justice Hill. Muse is in second place now!
As for Brinks — whose internship comes to a close at the end of this week — we can't help but marvel at his ability to maintain two-times more losses than wins. If you have been betting against Brinks' picks this entire season, you would be sitting pretty right now! In all seriousness, we love you, Mr. Brinkerhoff, and words can't accurately convey how much we will miss working with you! Good luck with all your future endeavors and stay away from over/under props for a bit!
Let's start the year in style with some Week 18 bangers! If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, happy New Year, and enjoy what should be an entertaining and lucrative Week 18!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 18: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts vs. Texans — OVER 79.5 receiving yards (Sloan Piva)
This number seems outrageously high — we get it. But the Colts and Texans will be battling for their postseason lives this Sunday and Pittman should be targeted early and often now that effects from his Week 15 concussion are in the rearview mirror.
Pittman has hit 80-plus yards seven different times this season, and he has finished with 77-plus in nine of his 15 games. The Texans have also surrendered the 12th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season (164.5 per game), and seven different wideouts have racked up 80-plus yards against Houston since Week 9. Let’s head on down to Pitty City!
MORE WEEK 18 BETTING: Best Bets | Against the Spread | Moneyline
Nico Collins, WR, Texans @ Colts 49ers — OVER 74.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)
Even with Collins’ receiving yardage prop at its peak price, we’re still backing Houston’s WR1 to show out on Saturday night. Houston will be without Noah Brown (back) and potentially Robert Woods (hip), seemingly paving the way for a strong showing from Collins. The Colts’ defense loves to sit in a Cover 3, which is good news for Stroud and the Texans. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner leads the league in passer rating versus Cover 3 and Indy’s inability to get pressure likely gives him plenty of clean pockets to find Collins for chunk gains.
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers at Panthers — OVER 70.5 rushing yards (Vinnie Iyer)
The Panthers have been gashed by the run all season long. The Buccaneers need a get-well game offensively to ensure they win the NFC South and make the playoffs. It’s a tough spot for Baker Mayfield overall, so they should limit his passing volume and feed White early and often. He’ll hit this mark easily with 15-plus touches.
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Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers at Panthers — OVER 4.5 receptions (Nick Brinkerhoff)
The Buccaneers head into Week 18 with one of the best playoff-clinching scenarios you could possibly ask for: beat the worst team in the league and you’re in. Tampa couldn't seal the deal last week, failing to knock off the Saints and making this a must-win game. And while Baker Mayfield is banged up, Evans is in a good spot to deliver for his squad.
The Mayfield-to-Evans connection puts Verizon 5G to shame, as the stud wideout has been one of the best in the NFL this year. After collecting 7-of-12 targets against Carolina back in Week 13, Evans should be in line for more of the same this time around.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks at Cardinals — OVER 55.5 rushing yards (Piva)
The Cardinals have earned the distinction of being the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing a league-high 1,917 rushing yards to running backs this season (119.8). Things have been <em>really</em> bad over Arizona’s past five games, though. During that stretch, Jonathan Gannon’s squad has surrendered 168.6 rushing yards per game.
The Seahawks have an outside shot of making the playoffs if they win this week, so look for Walker to rough up this defense on Sunday. The second-year back has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over Seattle’s past three games, so he should be able to hit this target with 14-plus carries.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys at Commanders — OVER 61.5 receiving yards (Musial)
Cooks and the Cowboys' offense should have little trouble moving the ball through the air against the league’s second-most inefficient pass defense on an EPA/dropback basis. Cooks totaled 72 receiving yards on four receptions in Dallas’ home win on Thanksgiving Day, so recording 40-plus looks feasible in a plus matchup.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Bears at Packers — OVER 63.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
Herbert has been on fire since taking over as the lead back, and as a result the Bears have been front-runners of late. He and Justin Fields can keep Chicago very competitive in this game against arch-rivals, knowing they have the chance to play spoiler to the Packers’ wild-card chances. Joe Barry’s defense is having issues everywhere and has leaked against the run all season. This number is low in relation to the matchup and Herbert’s recent production.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys at Commanders — OVER 37.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
We couldn’t go through the last week of the season without betting a Ferguson prop, so yours truly is sticking to the brand and taking the plunge once again. We all know what’s on the line for the Cowboys this week — a win clinches their NFC East title, while a loss likely sends them to the Wild Card and forces them to start the season where they hate playing: on the road.
And while Ferguson’s one-catch performance in Week 12 against the Commanders on Thanksgiving won’t have anyone feeling comfortable here, Ferguson's volume is simply too great for his projection to be this low. He’s averaging 7.6 targets per game in the five contests since, and he has totaled at least 40 yards in four of them. Trust the volume and buy the dip on Fergie.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions vs. Vikings — OVER 58.5 rushing yards (Piva)
Gibbs needs 85 rushing yards to get to 1,000 on the season, while running mate David Montgomery needs 25. If they hit those marks, they will become just the eighth teammate duo to reach the single-season century mark. That might not happen, but we know damn well Gibbs will try his hardest to get it done.
The rookie has been one of the more explosive backs in the NFL since Halloween weekend, averaging 74.2 rushing yards per game in the nine games during that span. Even better, Minnesota has surrendered 133.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, and Aaron Jones just gash the Vikings for 120 yards in Week 17. Gibbs to the moon!
Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills @ Dolphins — OVER 61.5 receiving yards (Musial)
While it seems as if Diggs has fallen out of favor in Buffalo, going UNDER his receiving yardage prop in nine of his past 10 games, we’re banking on him stepping up in the de facto AFC East championship game. It won’t be easy to consistently create separation against Jalen Ramsey, but the number is too enticing to pass up. Diggs’ receiving yardage total is set to close at its lowest number this season at 61.5, with his previous low being 68.5. We’ll hold our nose and back him at a good price.
Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys @ Commanders — OVER 58.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
Pollard hasn't done much to please his fantasy football managers or his player prop investors this season. He has been disappointing with key lead duties, and his struggles to run the ball are what opened up the Cowboys' pass-happy approach with a lot of Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb. However, Washington has wilted against the run and seems to just be going through the defensive motions as the Commanders approach their last game under Ron Rivera.
Justin Fields, QB, Bears @ Packers — OVER 52.5 rushing yards (Brinkerhoff)
On the surface, the Bears are out of the playoff picture and just have to get through this game before a long vacation. But don’t get it twisted — this is like a playoff game for Chicago and an even bigger one for Fields. The QB is trying to prove that the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft should be spent on something other than his replacement and Fields’ play as of late is making it an interesting conversation.
Fields has already gone over this line once against the Packers, back in the first week of the season. He has turned it up a notch with his legs down the stretch since returning from injury, averaging 65.5 yards on the ground over the past six games, compared to just 39.5 in the first six. With him getting the chance to make a final statement — not to mention knock the Packers out of the playoffs in the process — we expect Fields to put on a show.
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