As surprising of a World Series entrant as the Rangers are — what with their mini collapse in the second half, a playoff path that included the AL’s best two teams and having to go on the road and win Games 6 and 7 in the ALCS — the Diamondbacks top them in the surprise category.
Arizona is a team that finished with just 84 wins, and struggled through a 7-24 stretch in July that looked like it would crush any playoff hopes they were harboring. But the Diamondbacks rallied in the regular season to reach October. That was pretty surprising.
But coming back to beat a Philadelphia team that looked like an October juggernaut in the NLCS, after falling behind 0-2 — getting outscored 15-3 — is downright stunning.
This might not be a matchup the TV networks were dreaming of, but it’s a World Series matchup full of rich storylines and legacies on the line.
MORE: Full schedule for 2023 World Series games
World Series 2023 picks, predictions
- Rangers pitching vs. Diamondbacks hitting
Nathan Eovaldi has been dynamic in the postseason (a 2.42 ERA in four starts) and Jordan Montgomery has not one, but two playoff starts with at least six shutout innings this month. And the Rangers just might not win that Game 7 in Houston if he doesn’t enter the game in relief and get seven huge outs.
The big worry for Rangers fans, of course, is the bullpen. Jose Leclerc was great early in October, but got touched up a bit in the later stages. Aroldis Chapman can’t be trusted, and the same goes for Will Smith. Bochy has done an admirable job mixing and matching but if it’s anyone but Josh Sborz on the mound in relief, Rangers fans are worried.
And that’s a problem against a lineup like Arizona has. Ketel Marte has literally never played in a postseason game without getting a hit. Corbin Carroll looked unstoppable in Game 7. Gabriel Moreno is an emerging star, and so does Alex Thomas. Christian Walker is a sleeping giant. Tommy Pham, Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Evan Longoria are veterans who work counts and take good at-bats.
Advantage: Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks pitching vs. Rangers hitting
Remember when the only thing people wrote (guilty) about the Diamondbacks was that they have two aces — Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly — and not much else? Brandon Pfaadt has pitched so well in October that people have started to commit the spelling of his name to memory. And the bullpen? Yeah, it’s been fantastic.
The Rangers present a problem with their lineup, of course. Up top, two of the most professional hitters in baseball (whatever that means) in Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Adolis Garica swings at every pitch like he’s mad at the world, even though he’s always smiling. Josh Jung and Evan Carter play beyond their years. Mitch Garver just keeps bumping up his free-agent asking price, and Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowe showed life late in the series vs. the Astros. There are, as they say, no easy at-bats in this lineup.
Advantage: Rangers, but only slightly
- X-factors
Maybe the biggest question for the Rangers heading into the is this: What will they get from Max Scherzer? He’s earned his reputation as an elite pitcher of his generation, a no-doubt future Hall of Famer. But he certainly didn’t pitch to that level in the ALCS. And, sure, he was coming off an extended stay on the IL and it was kinda incredible he made it back. No doubt. But is this his new normal? He struggled with the Mets and was very good, but not great, for the Rangers. Nobody would be shocked if the famously intense and competitive Scherzer threw out five or six scoreless innings. Nobody would be shocked if he failed to make it out of the fourth inning in the World Series either, though.
Christian Walker was a monster in the regular season for the Diamondbacks, with 33 homers, 103 RBIs and a 123 OPS+, but he has struggled this month. Starting with Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Walker’s just 3-for-28. He does have nine walks, but Arizona needs his bat to produce. And he’s too good — too veteran, too patient, too motivated — to continue to struggle in the World Series.
Advantage: Diamondbacks
- Managers
Nothing against Torey Lovullo, but nobody quite makes the postseason look easy like Bruce Bochy. The veteran manager has now reached the World Series in four of the past five times he’s guided his team to the postseason, and he won the previous three. The magic he and his staff worked, rallying the Rangers from what could have been a disastrous second-half collapse to the brink of a World Series title, is nothing short of amazing.
Advantage: Rangers
- World Series prediction
Diamondbacks win in 6 Games