LAS VEGAS — How to forecast the NFL’s Week 18 point spreads? They are riddles, wrapped in mystery, inside an enigma, to paraphrase Sir Winston Churchill’s elegance in an October 1939 radio broadcast.
The British Bulldog was referring to Russia. There’s no other way, however, to sum up the doubt, questions and zaniness that is the league’s final regular-season weekend.
Patrons partaking in the wagering enter a maze that might not have an exit.
“A complete matrix,” veteran oddsman Dave Sharapan says. “You have no idea which way to go.”
And high-dollar selection contests at the Westgate Superbook and Circa Sports will culminate this weekend.
“Trying to come up with five games that you have a solid opinion on, when you are tied for the lead in the Circa [Million V] contest, is an absolute nightmare.”
Sharapan and a buddy once were in 10th place heading into the final weekend in the SuperBook’s SuperContest that paid the top 30 positions. He figured 3-2 would keep them in the money, 4-1 to win six figures.
They went 2-3 to finish No. 31.
“I didn’t get out of bed for two days,” Sharapan says. “Sick. As the games played out, ‘Ohhhh, Noooooo, this can’t be … why did that happen?’ A brutal day.”
Sharapan is the perfect savvy-sharp source for insights into select games because he spent years toiling behind the counters of many Strip sportsbooks, plus ones in West Virginia and Curaçao.
The numbers and funky circumstances are as familiar to him as the names of his three daughters. A Pittsburgh native, he honed in on the Steelers giving 3.5 points Saturday in Baltimore.
“Pittsburgh must win, and Baltimore isn’t playing for anything. Just lay the points. Well, the book knows that, too, so they’ll sit there and take bets all week on Pittsburgh and be fine with Pittsburgh not winning or winning by three points.
“This will be the last time, and one of the only times, all season that the book needs Baltimore.”
Long ago, someone in a sportsbook uttered words that still resonate with Sharapan.
“I loved it when they said it, that being the book, a lot of times, is like being the defense, and being a bettor is like playing offense. Well, being the book you are really playing defense in Week 18.”
NFL Week 18 game-by-game sharp money report
Here's a look at the latest NFL betting odds along with insider insight from Sharapan for some of the biggest games in Week 18.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 9-7 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3, 11-5 ATS)
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
An advance line had this Baltimore -2, with a 44.5 total, so the flipping of the favorite and slicing of the total suggests that the books know Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be sitting out.
Reasonable, since Baltimore has locked up the top AFC seed. However, Ravens coach John Harbaugh had confirmed nothing about Jackson through Wednesday.
“It looks like that,” Sharapan says of the favorite getting flipped and Jackson likely not playing. “The market tells you they are the No. 1 seed, that the road in the AFC goes through Baltimore.
“The Ravens are the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl now. The Steelers need to win to give themselves a shot, and they need a two-game parlay; Buffalo and Jacksonville to lose.”
Expect 36 degrees at kickoff, with a 62% chance of rain and 10-mph winds throughout the game.
As a public service, know that Brad Allen and his referee crew, who botched that Detroit-Dallas game Saturday night, are assigned to this tilt, to be nationally televised on ESPN.
Go deeper: Steelers vs. Ravens odds, props, predictions
Atlanta Falcons (7-9, 5-11 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (8-8, 5-10-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Sharapan marvels over the NFC South, one of four divisions whose outcomes still to be settled.
“Which is unusual,” he says. “Usually, at this point, it’s one or two.”
Which adds to the menagerie. The Saints win the division with a victory and a loss by Tampa Bay (8-8) in Carolina.
“[The public] will bet the Saints, and rightly so … Tampa will probably be in every regular Joe’s teaser, so all they have to do is win; how can they not beat Carolina?
“There will be speculation bets on the Saints to make the playoffs and win the division.”
At many Vegas shops Wednesday, the Saints were what Sharapan calls “a heavy 3,” with a -115 or -120 price tag. New Orleans has won three of its last four, including a 23-13 triumph last weekend in Tampa Bay.
“The Saints had their number and got ahead. Tampa Bay is not built to come from behind; the Bucs got behind, and it was done.”
Odds to make the postseason: NFL Playoff scenario parlays
Cleveland Browns (11-5, 11-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-8, 6-8-2 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
A look-ahead line had Cincinnati -2, and it crept to a neutral 5.
“What we used to do is put up five, and hopefully [customers] show their hands by Friday, when the limits open and you can maybe maneuver, get into a couple of good positions.
“But this is one of those weeks in which you book the games straight up and live with the results.”
Thirty-year-old Jeff Driskel, 1-9 as an NFL starter, will be the Cleveland’s record fifth starting quarterback in a single season. It’s expected to be in the high 30s, with a 22% chance of rain increasing to 32% in the second half.
Seattle Seahawks (8-8, 7-7-2 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (4-12, 8-7-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
A meaningless tilt? Ask the Eagles how easy it is to brush off the Cardinals, or inquire with the many who wagered that Arizona would win fewer than 4.5 games this season.
“All Philly had to do was win, as a 13-point favorite,” Sharapan says. “Just win! It didn’t have to cover, and it had the No. 2 seed locked up.”
Instead, the underdog Cards went to Philadelphia last weekend and won, 35-31, handing the Eagles their fourth defeat in five games.
“Now the Cardinals are a home dog against Seattle. The Seahawks never were the right side last week at home against the Steelers, and now they’re laying 3 in the desert? A scary spot, either Arizona or nothing.”
Sharapan knows Arizona UNDER 4.5 regular-season wins likely attracted the most preseason attention from punters betting seasn-win totals, over or under.
“The books will do just fine, needing Arizona in that game. If you have Arizona Under 4.5 for a dime or two, you’re coming in to bet Seattle on the moneyline.”
More NFL: All Week 18 odds and playoff implications
Chicago Bears (7-9, 8-6-2 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-8, 8-8 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Over his past seven games, Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown 247 passes, 16 for touchdowns and only one interception. And Green Bay won five of those seven games.
To begin his career as a starter, Love threw three TD passes, with no interceptions, in the Packers’ 38-20 season-opening victory at Chicago. His 30 scoring throws rank Love third in the league, behind Dak Prescott (Dallas, 32) and Brock Purdy (San Francisco, 31).
The Bears have dropped 24 of their past 27 overall games to the Packers, including seven of eight in Wisconsin. It will be 32 degrees, with persistent 10-mph winds.
Los Angeles Rams (9-7, 9-6-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4, 9-7 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Will Niners QB Brock Purdy play? San Francisco has clinched the NFC’s top seed, so why would he start? The ol’ rust-vs.-rest dilemma. The Rams are resting Matthew Stafford.
Green Bay would rest Aaron Rodgers the final game of the season, which would turn into two weeks off due to the Packers getting a first-round bye. Enter, rust.
So by the time they played, timing suffered, resulting in embarrassing home playoff defeats. Any wonder why he won only a single Super Bowl in Green Bay? Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has been non-committal.
“Go back in history, and it felt like [New England boss Bill] Belichick never rested the Patriots. With [coach] Tony Dungy, the Colts frequently rested Peyton Manning,” Sharapan says.
“Why were they resting them? Then someone would get hurt, and it was, Why didn’t you rest him? Quite the puzzle to figure out, and it’s this week.”
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Buffalo Bills (10-6, 6-9-1 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (11-5, 10-6 ATS)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
The Dolphins win the AFC East with a victory. These two have split their past 20 games in South Florida. It’s expected to be 70, with a 35% chance of rain throughout the game.
“The moneyline” on the hometown Fins, Sharapan says. “That’s easy.”
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