NFL live playoff picture 2024: Updated standings, clinching scenarios for Week 18 bracket

The final week of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, and soon, the NFL's playoff picture will be set in stone.

That said, there is a lot to be decided before fans can get excited about the 2024 NFL playoff matchups.

There are 20 NFL teams still alive in the quest to win Super Bowl 58. We already know nine of the 14 teams that will clinch passage to the postseason, but soon, five more teams will book their ticket to the playoffs.

Per usual, Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season is set to be a wild ride, as control of various seeds in both the AFC and NFC playoff races figure to change hands frequently throughout the NFL's loaded Sunday slate.

But which teams have the inside track to make the postseason? Here's what to know about the NFL's playoff picture, tiebreakers and elimination scenarios as Week 18 results come in.

NFL WEEK 18 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

This article will be updated periodically to reflect the latest news, updates and results from around the NFL.

NFL playoff standings Week 18

• AFC playoff picture

In the hunt: Texans (9-7), Colts (9-7)

• NFC playoff picture

In the hunt: Seahawks (8-8), Saints (8-8), Vikings (7-9), Falcons (7-9)

NFL tiebreakers, explained

There are a few teams in the AFC and NFC that currently have the same records. Here's a look at the tiebreakers that are determining which teams have the advantage over the other in the 2024 NFL playoff race.

AFC tiebreakers

• The Jaguars currently lead the AFC South because of their head-to-head win percentage against the Colts and Texans.
• The Colts are the No. 8 seed because they have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans.

NFC tiebreakers

• The Cowboys are the NFC's No. 2 seed because they have a superior conference record (8-3) to that of the Eagles (7-4) and because of their head-to-head victory over the Lions.
• The Packers own the No. 7 seed over the Seahawks because of the strength of victory and have a better conference record (6-5) than the Saints (5-6).
• The Seahawks are the No. 8 seed because of their superior conference record (6-5) to that of the Saints.
• The Vikings are the No. 10 seed thanks to their division tiebreak putting them ahead of Chicago based on their record in common games and their head-to-head win over the Falcons.

MORE: Full list of every NFL quarterback that started during the 2023 NFL season

NFL clinching scenarios Week 18

• AFC

Buffalo Bills (10-6)

Games remaining: at Dolphins

Buffalo clinches the AFC East division title with:

1. Bills win

Buffalo clinches a playoff berth with: 

1. Bills tie OR
2. Steelers loss or tie
3. Jaguars loss or tie
4. Colts-Texans tie

Houston Texans (9-7)

Games remaining: at Colts

Houston clinches the AFC South division title with:

1. Texans win AND Jaguars loss or tie

Houston clinches a playoff berth with: 

1. Texans win OR
2. Texans tie AND Jaguars loss AND Steelers loss or tie

Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

Games remaining: vs. Texans

Indianapolis clinches the AFC South division title with:

1. Colts win AND Jaguars loss or tie OR
2. Colts tie AND Jaguars loss

Indianapolis clinches a playoff berth with: 

1. Colts win OR
2. Colts tie AND Steelers loss or tie

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)

Games remaining: at Titans

Jacksonville clinches the AFC South division title with:

1. Jaguars win OR
2. Jaguars tie AND Colts-Texans tie

Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with: 

1. Jaguars tie AND Steelers loss or tie OR
2. Steelers loss AND Broncos loss or tie AND Colts-Texans doesn't end in a tie

Miami Dolphins (11-5)

Games remaining: vs. Bills

Miami clinches the AFC East title with:

1. Dolphins win or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:

1. Bills loss OR
2. Jaguars loss or tie OR
3. Colts-Texans tie OR

• NFC

Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

Games remaining: at Saints

Atlanta clinches the NFC South title with:

1. Falcons win AND Buccaneers loss

Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

Games remaining: at Commanders

Dallas clinches the NFC East title with:

1. Cowboys win OR
2. Cowboys tie AND Eagles tie OR
3. Eagles loss

Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Games remaining: vs. Bears

Green Bay clinches a playoff berth with:

1. Packers win OR
2. Packers tie AND Seahawks loss or tie AND Saints loss or tie OR
3. Packers tie AND Seahawks loss AND Buccaneers loss OR
4. Packers tie AND Seahawks tie AND Buccaneers loss or tie OR
5. Vikings loss or tie AND Seahawks loss AND Buccaneers loss OR
6. Vikings loss or tie AND Seahawks loss AND Saints loss

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Games remaining: at Lions

Minnesota clinches a playoff berth with:

1. Vikings win AND Packers loss AND Seahawks loss AND Buccaneers loss OR
2. Vikings win AND Packers loss AND Seahawks loss AND Saints loss

New Orleans Saints (8-8)

Games remaining: vs. Falcons

New Orleans clinches the NFC South title with:

1. Saints win AND Buccaneers loss or tie OR
2. Saints tie AND Buccaneers loss

New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with:

1. Saints win AND Seahawks loss or tie AND Packers loss or tie OR
2. Saints tie AND Seahawks loss AND Packers loss

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Games remaining: at Giants

Philadelphia clinches the NFC East title with:

1. Eagles win and Cowboys loss OR
2. Eagles tie and Cowboys loss

Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

Games remaining: at Cardinals

Seattle clinches a playoff berth with:

1. Seahawks win AND Packers loss or tie OR
2. Seahawks tie AND Packers loss AND Buccaneers loss or tie OR
3. Seahawks tie AND Packers loss AND Saints loss or tie

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)

Games remaining: at Panthers

Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South title with:

1. Buccaneers win OR
2. Buccaneers tie and Saints loss or tie

Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with:

1. Buccaneers tie AND Seahawks loss AND Packers loss or tie

MORE: Full breakdown of the NFL's 2024 Pro Bowl rosters

NFL elimination scenarios Week 18

There are 20 teams still in postseason contention entering Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Six will be eliminated ahead of the 14-team playoff.

Here's what to know about the elimination scenarios for each team.

• AFC

Entering Week 18, there are three playoff spots up for grabs in the AFC and five teams vying for them. All five squads will have elimination scenarios because of this.

The Colts and Texans have the simplest elimination scenarios. If either of them loses, they are out. Indianapolis can also be eliminated with a tie, a Steelers win and a Jaguars win or tie. Houston will be out in a tie if either the Steelers win or the Jaguars win or tie in Week 18.

The Bills are in a unique spot, as they are playing for the AFC's No. 2 seed but could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. Buffalo would have to lose, see both the Jaguars and Steelers win and have the Colts-Texans game not end in a tie to be eliminated from the playoff picture.

So long as the Jaguars beat the Titans, they will win the AFC South. However, if they lose, they could be eliminated with a Steelers win or tie, a Broncos win or a Colts tie. The Jaguars will also face elimination scenarios if they tie the Titans.

Finally, the Steelers will be eliminated from postseason contention with a Jaguars win, a Bills win or tie AND the Colts-Texans game not ending with a tie.

For the full details on the AFC elimination scenarios, click here.

• NFC

Entering Week 18, there are two playoff spots up for grabs in the NFC. Six teams are vying for those two spots, so all six will face elimination scenarios. They are as follows.

The Falcons have the simplest elimination scenarios of the bunch. If they lose, the Buccaneers win or either game ends in a tie, they will be out of the running for the NFC South. That's their only potential way into the postseason.

The Saints are in a similar boat to the Falcons, though they could sneak into the No. 7 seed with some help. That said, New Orleans is eliminated with a loss and can also be eliminated by a Buccaneers win coupled with wins by either the Packers or Seahawks. There are also a couple of situations in which the Saints can be eliminated with a tie, a win or by the Buccaneers and a win or tie by the Packers or Seahawks.

The Buccaneers can most easily be eliminated from the playoff race with a loss. They also can be eliminated with a tie, a win by the Saints and either a win or tie by the Seahawks or a Packers win. But if Tampa Bay beat the Panthers, then the team will win the NFC South.

The Packers have a win-and-in path to the postseason, so it's no surprise that their elimination scenarios are the most complex. Green Bay would have to lose against the Bears and see one of the following results occur to be eliminated from postseason contention:

• Vikings win or tie
• Seahawks win or tie
• Buccaneers win or tie AND Saints win or tie

The Packers can also be eliminated in certain scenarios with a tie and several losses by the teams listed above.

The Vikings have the hardest path to a wild-card berth and thus possess the most elimination scenarios. Minnesota will miss the playoffs with a loss or tie against the Lions, wins or ties from the Seahawks or Packers or seeing both the Buccaneers and Saints win or tie in Week 18.

Finally, the Seahawks are also eliminated with a loss or a Packers win. They can also be eliminated if both them and the Packers tie or if Seattle ties and both New Orleans and Tampa Bay win.

For the full details on the NFC elimination scenarios, click here.