Michigan vs. Washington odds, props, predictions for CFP national championship: Wolverines favored but history has been kind to underdogs

After hundreds of regular season games, 10 conference championships and 43 bowl games, the season comes down to two teams, Michigan and Washington, playing in one last game — the CFP National Championship.

Let's take a look at the odds, props and predictions for the 2023-24 CFP national championship game.

Michigan vs. Washington odds, props, analysis & predictions

This will be the fourth time the national championship game has featured two undefeated teams; the higher-seeded team is 2-1. It is also the fourth time the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have met in the CFP final.

The No. 2 seed has won each time. Here are live Michigan vs. Texas odds from top sports betting apps:

There are several trends that bettors may want to keep in mind when deciding where to put their money:

• The No. 1 seed has played in the national championship game seven times (out of nine).
• The No. 1 seed was the favorite in five of those seven games; they were 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS when the underdog.
• The No. 2 seed has played in the national championship game four times, three times vs. the No. 1 seed.
• The No. 2 seed is 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS. Against the No. 1 seed, they were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
• Favorites are 4-5 SU and ATS in national championship games.
• The favorite won the last four SU and ATS; the OVER was 3-1.
• The underdog won the first five CFP championships; the OVER was 1-4.

More college football betting: Best College Football Betting Apps and Sites | College Football Betting Lines, Odds and Spreads

Michigan vs. Washington betting trends and news

• Michigan is 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS. The OVER was 7-6-1
• When favored by single-digits, Michigan is 3-0 SU and ATS.
• The OVER was 0-4 to start the season but 7-2-1 the rest of the way (3-1 in the last four).
• Washington is 14-0 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. The OVER was 7-6-1
• Washington is 3-0 when the underdog this season.
• The OVER is 1-2 in games where Washington was the underdog. The one win was in the CFP semifinal vs. Texas.

CFP national championship game: Injuries

The player to watch in the days leading up to the title game will be Washington running back Dillon Johnson. Johnson was injured late in the game vs. Texas and had to be helped/carried off the field. X-rays taken at the stadium were negative.

In a recent radio appearance, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb stated that Johnson is expected to play in the title game Monday night.

CFP title game: Michigan vs. Washington player props

Passing yards

Penix had 300-plus yards in nine of 14 games this season including 319 vs. Oregon in the Pac-12 title game and 430 against Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

It will be harder to throw against Michigan, but Washington will want their superstar to do what he does best.

As for McCarthy, he threw for over 200 in seven of 12 regular season games. However, he had under 150 yards in his last four games prior to throwing for 221 against Alabama.

Bur the Wolverines may need to throw more to keep up with Washington. Against the Huskies defense, that may not be too hard.

Receiving yards

Penix will throw a lot, making the OVER enticing for any Washington receivers.

Odunze is a potential first-round pick; Penix will target him early and often. Polk, who had a 100-yard day against the Longhorns, has gone for over 54.5 yards in every game but two this season.

But McMillan is a question mark. Injuries forced him to miss a good chunk of the season. He had 95-plus in three games to start the season but was held to 26, 131 and 58 in his last three.

As for the Michigan receivers, Wilson had 73 against Alabama but just 73 total in the previous three games. Loveland had more than 34.5 yards in seven regular season games but had 22 and 13 in postseason play.

Johnson got off to a good start with 71-plus yards in four of the first five games of the season but only had two games with more than 33.5 yards in the last eight (including postseason).

Rushing yards

Michigan will feed Corum the ball all day unless Washington jumps out to a 21-point lead, and the Wolverines get forced to throw the ball (which means he'll rack up some receiving yards on screen plays).

Edwards ran for over 25.5 yards in four of his last five games.

McCarthy ran for positive yards in nine game. In eight of them he ran for more than 15.5. He also had five games with negative rushing yards.

Michigan vs. Washington analysis

Washington has the best passing attack in the nation, which was evident in the Sugar Bowl when Michael Penix Jr. threw for 430 yards against a good Texas secondary.

Michigan will want to use the nation's best defense (total yards and scoring) to keep that passing attack in check and off the field.

If the Wolverines can keep the Husky offense from blowing up the scoreboard, they will not need the offense to be anything more than it has been all season — efficient.

Blake Corum will need to get on track early while J.J. McCarthy does enough in the passing game to keep the Washington defense honest. If they can, and they're able to grind out a couple of long scoring drives, advantage Michigan.

Conversely, Washington can't rely on its defense to slow down J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines offense. While it did have a solid game in the Sugar Bowl, the Husky defense has struggled at times this season.

They aren't bad against the run (No. 41, 137.1 rushing YPG allowed). But their pass defense has been dismal (No. 120, 267.1 passing YPG allowed).

Still, if Penix can get on the same page with his receivers early on and get a couple of quick touchdowns on the board, they may be able to force Michigan to throw more than they want to.

Then again, with how well their secondary has played this season, that strategy could blow up in their faces.

Bet(s) to consider

Washington

This game could go either way, depending on who succeeds at doing what they do best. We are going with Washington via the moneyline because we like the value at plus-money odds.

Blake Corum OVER rushing yards

Michael Penix Jr. OVER passing yards

Rome Odunze OVER receiving yards

Both teams will lean on their superstars in this game. Bettors can probably count on them to have productive games, whether it's in a winning effort or because their team is forced to play catch up.