The pathway to the 2023/24 Champions League final in London is nearly complete, as the Round of 16 matchups were set.
Group stage winners were paired with group runners-up, as Europe's top club competition moves closer towards its business end
Clubs near the top of Europe's biggest leagues, such as Man City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Arsenal battle against the continent's most enthralling underdog stories in the likes of Real Sociedad, PSV, and Borussia Dortmund.
The Sporting News details how each tie will be expected to play out. You will notice plenty of predictions and assumptions, but remember, the Champions League draw is seeded in such a way to give the best teams favorable pathways to the title, and thus the seeded versus unseeded matchups in the Round of 16 are built to play out this way more often than not.
MORE: A look at the full Champions League Round of 16 draw for the 2023/24 competition
Odds to win 2023/24 Champions League
| Man City | Bayern Munich | Arsenal | Real Madrid | PSG | Barcelona | Inter Milan | Atletico Madrid | Borussia Dortmund | Napoli | Real Sociedad | RB Leipzig | FC Porto | PSV | Lazio | FC Copenhagen | |
| DraftKings (USA) | +200 | +400 | +550 | +550 | +1400 | +1600 | +1800 | +2200 | +2500 | +4000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10,000 | +10,000 | +15,000 | +25,000 |
Manchester City are favorites to win the title, as defending champions, but they are in poor form at the moment, falling to fourth in the Premier League. That has prompted many to suggest that others could sneak in and win the tournament, but thankfully for City, they have nearly two months to figure things out before the Round of 16 begins.
Bayern Munich look up to the task, as do Arsenal and Real Madrid, with those three clubs certainly among the contedners. From there, the betting market makes it clear it's a four-horse race, and understandably so.
Barcelona have defensive issues to sort out and don't seem worthy challengers at the moment, while PSG have star power but lack consistency and maturity in the latter stages. Inter and Atletico Madrid are also struggling mightily with inconsistency, while Borussia Dortmund looked a potential challenger in the group stage but are still hard to trust.
Ultimately, the team in the best form and with the deepest squad looks to be Bayern Munich, and while you'd be sensible to back Pep Guardiola for a turnaround, Bayern have been the most complete team through the first half of the season and would be the smartest value selection. Real Madrid also look a team capable of standing up to any challenge, even with their slew of defensive injuries.
Prediction: Bayern Munich (+400 on DraftKings)
Champions League Round of 16 predictions and odds
Napoli vs. Barcelona
First leg: February 21
Second leg: March 12
| Napoli to advance | Barcelona to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | +130 | -185 |
Two flawed teams meet as Napoli and Barcelona are drawn together in the Round of 16. Neither side has looked at their best, but Barcelona have the most concerning issues to sort out as they struggle with defensive continuity and now are without injured goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen for these fixtures.
Ter Stegen's exceptional performances had papered over many of Barcelona's issues at the back, and now in his absence they are being exposed. Napoli have the firepower to overwhelm Barca, who are not built to get in a shootout with opposing clubs. The Italian side will like their chances to advance here, which according to the betting market would be an upset.
Prediction: Napoli to advance (+130 on BetMGM)
Porto vs. Arsenal prediction
First leg: February 21
Second leg: March 12
| Porto to advance | Arsenal to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | +375 | -650 |
Arsenal are not exactly a perfect side, and backing them to win the Champions League title comes with significant risk, they sit at the top of a crowded Premier League title fight for a reason. This Gunners team has quality and depth, even when not all the Arsenal stars are in form at the same time. Martin Odegaard has transformed into a truly world-class player, while Bukayo Saka is ready to become a star on the European stage.
While Porto made it through a tough group, and have the quality to trouble most (if not all) European giants, ultimately over two legs Arsenal should advance – although it won't be easy. Goalkeeping and striker issues keep Arsenal from being true title contenders, and depth could be a problem if injuries start to pile up.
Prediction: Arsenal to advance (-650 on BetMGM)
FC Copenhagen vs. Man City
First leg: February 13
Second leg: March 6
| Copenhagen to advance | Man City to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | +1800 | -10,000 |
Manchester City are struggling as the 2023 calendar year comes to a close, having won just one of their last six matches across all competitions at the time of the UCL draw in mid-December. Yet they have the deepest squad in Europe, and if anyone can turn it around, Pep Guardiola's the man for the job.
Yet regardless of their form, this is a very kind draw for the defending champions, who were paired with the softest unseeded team left in the competition. FC Copenhagen did wonderfully to get past Galatasaray and Manchester United in a difficult Group A, and should be treated as such, but there's still no getting past the fact they are not built for a Champions League knockout stage upset of this magnitude.
There's no betting value on this one, so move on to other openings.
Prediction: Man City (-10,000 on BetMGM)
RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid
First leg: February 13
Second leg: March 6
| RB Leipzig to advance | Real Madrid to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | +300 | -500 |
Real Madrid have suffered a significant slew of long-term injuries through the first half of the season, but have sported depth of the highest order to, as Sir Michael Caine famously said, "use the difficulty." Eder Militao and Thibaut Courtois both suffered torn ACLs early in the campaign, and it somehow hasn't affected their push for more silverware. Even the loss of Vinicius Jr for weeks hasn't caused too many problems, it remains to be seen whether they can now cover for David Alaba's knee injury.
Still, until they begin to show signs of wear on the pitch, it's hard not to think Real Madrid are up to challenge for yet another Champions League title. RB Leipzig will be very difficult opponents – and this tie looks primed for an upset – with Madrid even possibly dropping the first result in Germany, but as long as they remain close, it'd be hard to imagine Los Blancos failling to recover at home.
Prediction: Real Madrid to advance (-500 on BetMGM)
Lazio vs. Bayern Munich
First leg: February 14
Second leg: March 5
| Lazio to advance | Bayern to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | +500 | -1100 |
Bayern Munich are unquestionably in the best form of any team in the Champions League knockout stage at the time of the Round of 16 draw. Unfortunately for them, they sit second in the Bundesliga behind the most in-form team in all of Europe in Bayer Leverkusen, but that should not detract from the fact that Bayern are flying. A wonky 5-1 defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt in the league proved just a blip, and this Bayern team can put any team to the sword.
Lazio finished second in Serie A last year under everyone's noses, but sit way back in 11th at the time of the draw, having won just one of their last six league matches. They benefitted from a very soft Champions League group, and should be no match for a German side in sensational form and one of the European title favorites.
Prediction: Bayern Munich to advance (-1100 on BetMGM)
Inter vs. Atletico Madrid
First leg: February 20
Second leg: March 13
| Inter to advance | Atletico Madrid to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | -135 | -105 |
Along with the Napoli versus Barcelona pairing, this will be the toughest Round of 16 meeting to call, and the odds reflect as much, as the only matchup with both teams featuring minus odds. Inter lead the Serie A table at the time of the draw, and they have proven gritty at both the domestic and European level over the past two years.
They might consider this an unlucky draw, as Inter will consider themselves better than this year's Atletico Madrid side on paper, but they'll know that Diego Simeone is always a tough cookie. Two recent league defeats have seen Atleti fall back to fourth in the La Liga standings, but they emerged from a soft Champions League group unbeaten and will fancy their chances for an upset in this matchup.
Unfortunately for Simeone, with such even odds, it's best to back the better side, especially given Lautaro Martinez's recent goal scoring form and Atleti's dip in defensive prowess this season.
Prediction: Inter to advance (-135 on BetMGM)
PSG vs. Real Sociedad
First leg: February 14
Second leg: March 5
| PSG to advance | Real Sociedad to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | -225 | +155 |
Kylian Mbappe and PSG have thus far embodied the Ewing Theory quite well, just as Nasser Al Khelaifi had hoped. Some (hint: this writer) picked them to struggle in this year's Group of Death, but they managed to advance via a second-place finish despite the departures of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Marco Verratti.
PSG then had the wonderful fortune of drawing the softest group winner of the lot, as Real Sociedad sit sixth in the Spanish top flight at the time of the draw and advanced past Inter only on goal difference. La Real have the quality to spring an upset in this matchup, leaning on one of Europe's best defensive records, but it will be hard to imagine PSG falling across two legs – even if they are probably not title contenders this year.
Prediction: PSG to advance (-225 on BetMGM)
PSV vs. Borussia Dortmund
First leg: February 20
Second leg: March 13
| PSV to advance | Dortmund to advance | |
| BetMGM (USA) | +140 | -200 |
PSV have toppled nearly everyone in their path this season, with their only defeat of the campaign being at Arsenal in the Champions League group stage, otherwise demolishing all of the Dutch league and the rest of their European group. Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, were not considered likely to emerge from the Champions League's toughest group, yet instead managed to not only qualify but top the standings.
Goals should flow in this tie, as both teams love to stream numbers forward and produce beautiful attacking football, putting on a show for neutrals regardless of the outcome. Unfortunately for PSV, that's not the kind of game they'll want to be in, as they could probably have snatched a few goals to trouble a side like Barcelona, but will struggle to keep up with the overwhelming quality of Dortmund in a true shootout.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to advance (-200 on BetMGM)
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