Defense still matters in the NFL. Through all the rule changes over the years that have benefited passing — and all the gaudy offensive stats piling up from every part of the league — having elite defensive assets still serves as a game-changer. Three such players will battle this weekend to distinguish themselves as the next NFL Defensive Player of the Year — Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and T.J. Watt. Today we'll discuss each player's chances and make our prediction for who will take down the top defensive honor in the 53rd year of the award.
It might be the tightest DPOY race the NFL has ever seen, perhaps even closer than the 2017 race that saw Aaron Donald prevail over Calais Campbell and Chandler Jones. And, like that year, the top candidates all make their living terrorizing quarterbacks.
Elite pass-rushers have always held a special place in AP DPOY voters' hearts, but they have especially dominated the award over the past decade or so. Since 2012, only two non-sackmasters have been honored as DPOY: middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (2013) and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (2019). The nine other selections in that 11-year span were either defensive ends, defensive tackles, or outside linebackers aka edge rushers.
So, who will prevail as the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year? We may not know until this weekend — that's how damn close it is right now. But let's check out the current BetMGM odds, determine what kind of value each player yields, and make our predictions for the NFL's next DPOY recipient.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year 2023: Odds
| Player | Odds |
| Myles Garrett, Browns | -200 |
| Micah Parsons, Cowboys | +300 |
| T.J. Watt, Steelers | +400 |
| Maxx Crosby, Raiders | +5000 |
| Nick Bosa, 49ers | +10000 |
| Roquan Smith, Ravens | +10000 |
| Danielle Hunter, Vikings | +10000 |
| Josh Allen, Jaguars | +10000 |
As you can see, it's a pretty tight race. Garrett anchors the front-seven for the stifling defense of the Browns, who have gone 11-5 despite losing Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb to season-ending injuries. Cleveland has rolled out four different QBs in multiple starts, and yet it has as good a chance as any team in the NFL to make the Super Bowl (Joe Flacco has played a part, as we discussed in our Comeback Player of the Year piece).
Like Flacco and incredible comeback story Damar Hamlin in the CPOY race, Garrett and Parsons are neck-and-neck atop the board. However, what sets this market apart from the rest of the awards is the fact that Watt, the 2021 DPOY, joins them in a three-way slugfest. It's quite rare to see three different pass-rushers at +400 or shorter going into the final weekend of the regular season.
Because this seems like such a close battle, we fully expect Garrett to suit up this weekend despite the fact that Cleveland already clinched the No. 5 seed in the AFC (the Browns have locked up the best record amongst all non-division champs, since the Ravens already secured the AFC North title). That's the way we like it — no funny stuff to potentially shake up the odds substantially before or after the season finale. That means we can analyze the candidates on an even playing field, with all three frontrunners logging full 17-game seasons.
With that being said, let's break down each frontrunner's case for winning 2023 Defensive Player of the Year.
Myles Garrett, Browns (-200)
While Garrett's total of 14 sacks trails Watt by three, the Browns' stud pass-rusher makes up for that gap in myriad ways. Cleveland has the No. 1 yardage defense in the NFL and allows the fewest passing yards, the shortest drives, and the fewest third-down conversions. PFF grades Garrett as the top pass-rusher in all of football (94.8), while ESPN ranks him second behind only Parsons in pass-rush win rate (30%) and double-team percentage (29%). He has also drawn 11 penalties from opposing linemen throughout the season, which leads the league. Oh, and he has played 88 percent of defensive snaps in six of Cleveland's past 10 games, despite operating with a nagging shoulder injury since Week 12.
Garrett is by far the best defender on arguably the best defense in the NFL. 49ers studs Nick Bosa and Fred Warner might have claims in the NFC, while Baltimore's Roquan Smith deserves a mention in the AFC — but pound for pound, it's difficult to find an individual player who means more to his team than Garrett. The Browns have been head-and-shoulders better than Pittsburgh defensively this season, while Cleveland certainly cannot hold a candle to the Cowboys' high-flying offense. For these reasons, Garrett stands out as the top candidate going into the final weekend of play — but he will need to show up and shout out against the Bengals to stay atop the odds board.
Micah Parsons, Cowboys (+300)
Parsons may have fewer total plays (226) than Watt (287) and Garrett (269) — and his 13 sacks trail Watt's 17 and Garrett's 14 — but he remains one of the most dominating forces in the NFL. According to ESPN's pass-rushing ranks, the third-year pro ranks No. 1 in pass-rush wins (83), win rate (37%), and double-team rate (34%). He's PFF's second-highest graded pass-rusher (93.9). PFF also has Parsons as the leader in terms of QB hurries.
Parsons also has the distinction of being the reigning DPOY runner-up, which sometimes sways voters in a player's favor. The 49ers' Bosa ran away with 1st in last year's voting — capturing 46 of 50 first-place votes and nearly 95 percent of the voting share — but Parsons was widely respected with 101 vote points and a 40.6 percent voting share at 2nd. He was also the unanimous selection for 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year, so don't be surprised if he darts to the top of the pack after going to town this weekend on the Commanders, who have been sacked more than any other team in the NFL.
T.J. Watt, Steelers (+400)
Pound for pound, Watt is arguably the best edge rusher in the NFL. He's tied with Cincy's Trey Hendrickson for most sacks (17), he trails only Nick Bosa in QB knockdowns (18), and he makes the short list with 18 tackles for loss. He has also contributed 60 tackles, eight pass deflections, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, an interception, and a defensive touchdown this season in what has been a rollercoaster year for the Steelers. Head coach Mike Tomlin often reminds us that Watt is the best defender in the world, but we don't think voters will share that sentiment this time around.
For one, the Steelers — and the defense around Watt — are not great. While Cleveland and Dallas each have 11 wins, Pittsburgh has scratch-and-clawed its way to nine. Pittsburgh has also surrendered the 11th-most total yards in the NFL, while the Browns have given up the fewest and the Cowboys have allowed the eighth-fewest. And we all know about voter fatigue when it comes to awards — if it's a close race and one of the three candidates just won two years ago and plays for the worst team of the three, you can basically kiss that guy's chances goodbye this time around.
Best bet to win 2023 Defensive Player of the Year: Garrett (-200)
This one is so damn close, but in the end we think it goes to Garrett over Parsons. Garrett is 28 while Garrett just turned 28, Cleveland has been a superior defense than Dallas from top to bottom, and the Browns needed Garrett to be their team MVP while the Cowboys relied on a plethora of game-changers on both sides of the ball in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and DaRon Bland.
We could see Parsons having a field day against the Commanders this weekend and usurping the top spot, so we wouldn't put our life savings on Garrett with the juice. However, just like Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski will almost assuredly win Coach of the Year, we think the best player on the NFL's best defense will prevail and take DPOY home.
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