The Nuggets looked unstoppable in their championship run last season, and they've continued that dominance through the beginning of the 2023-24 season. They sit atop the Western Conference both in terms of record and net rating, per NBA Stats. Nikola Jokic is again looking like the best player in the league, winning the first Player of the Week award.
It raises the following question: Can anyone beat these guys?
History may serve as a good guide for that answer. The last time that the Nuggets looked mortal was in the first round of the 2022 Western Conference playoffs, where they were eliminated in five games by the Warriors. That Warriors team beat the Nuggets in convincing fashion, outscoring them by 40 points.
Here's how Golden State did it, and what other teams can learn from that series.
Player Props on SuperDraft: New users get a Steph Curry free square
How the Warriors exposed Nikola Jokic's most glaring weakness
The Warriors didn't do an amazing job of stopping Jokic and the Nuggets. Denver's 113.9 offensive rating was the No. 5 mark of the playoffs and a shade better than its regular season offense. And Jokic still went off, averaging 31.0 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.0 blocks in the series.
The Nuggets lost despite that solid offensive output because they could not defend the 3-point line at all. The Warriors put up a blistering 121.9 offensive rating in the series. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole all averaged well over 20 points per game on over 40 percent shooting from deep.
Jokic has become an improved defender, using his quick hands to get deflections and generally be in the right spot. But his most glaring weakness is his lack of footspeed. The Warriors repeatedly exposed his inability to get out to the perimeter to shooters.
The Warriors tried to spread out the floor, having all five players outside of the 3-point line and using Jokic's defender as a screener to free up shooters. Jokic wasn't able to contest those shooters quickly enough (or at all), and the Warriors subsequently drilled 42.2 percent of their 3s in that series.
The Nuggets didn't face a team in last year's run that could punish Jokic in this same manner. They've gotten a lot better since that Warriors series, but that still remains a fundamental weakness of their team defense.
Why the same strategy might no longer work vs. Nuggets
That Nuggets team was missing a ton of players, which made them an easier out.
Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were in street clothes due to injuries. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope wasn't yet on the team. And the bench was much weaker than what the Nuggets have today.
Jokic was also not quite the 3-point shooter that he is now. He hit only 27.8 percent of his 3s during that 2022 series and 33.7 percent during the regular season. He's subsequently been a 38.3 percent shooter from deep in the regular season and hit 46.1 percent in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, making him even more impossible to guard.
The Nuggets' defense has also gotten better over time. They rely heavily on solid rotations behind Jokic, which can have a high degree of difficulty if not performed with 100 percent accuracy. They were able to nail those rotations in last year's playoffs, and the continuity of the team has helped them overperform their talent level defensively again.
All that is to say that the Warriors' strategy of spreading it out may not be as effective against this version of the Nuggets.
MORE: Are there any Nikola Jokic stoppers? LeBron James and Warriors offer only real blueprint
The Timberwolves might actually be the Nuggets' worst matchup
While the Warriors and other teams with good movement shooters have been widely considered the worst matchup for the Nuggets, the Timberwolves have also given them trouble in the past.
Bruce Brown shared that sentiment on the Run Your Race podcast.
"I would say, honestly, our toughest series was Minnesota," Brown said. "It was something about them. They had good players. It was Mike Conley, KAT, Ant. I think that was our toughest series.”
That potential weakness was exposed again early in the season. The Timberwolves handed the Nuggets their first loss in their meeting on Nov. 1, beating them convincingly by a score of 110-89.
The Nuggets always seem to have trouble with Anthony Edwards, who averaged 31.6 points per game in that playoff series last year. Minnesota has two big bodies, allowing them to play Karl-Anthony Towns on Jokic while letting Rudy Gobert play more of a roamer role. That has been the best strategy against Jokic in the past.
The Wolves' success shouldn't be too overstated, though — they were eliminated in five games last year.
Both the Warriors and Nuggets have tried some things out that have been somewhat effective in spurts, but no team has put it all together to truly challenge the Nuggets on both ends of the floor yet. The Nuggets should be the prohibitive favorites to come out of the West until proven otherwise.