The AFC South was the NFL's most wide-open division entering Week 17, and nothing about that will change ahead of the final week of the 2023 NFL season.
The Jaguars, Colts and Texans all won during the penultimate week of the campaign to keep things tightly bunched atop the divisional standings.
Jacksonville remains the team to beat in the division. The Jaguars improved to 9-7 thanks to their 26-0 shutout of the Panthers, but they have little margin for error thanks to the results of both the Colts and Texans.
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Indianapolis pulled out a three-point victory over the Raiders in a game during which the Colts put together a well-rounded effort. Jonathan Taylor scored and nearly had 100 rushing yards while Indianapolis' defense performed well for most of the game. The Colts allowed Davante Adams to have a big game (13 catches for 126 yards and two touchdowns) but few other Raiders found consistent success outside of garbage time.
As for the Texans, they got C.J. Stroud back and thrashed the Titans with their rookie QB back in the lineup. Houston won 26-3 as its defense generated six sacks and kept Will Levis and Ryan Tannehill off-balance all game long.
The AFC South teams are now occupying three of the top eight spots in the AFC playoff picture. Here's what to know about each team's playoff chances with one week left in the NFL season.
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AFC South standings
At present, the Jaguars are leading the AFC South, but it's not by much. They simply own the tiebreakers over the Colts and Texans that are presently needed to control the division.
But as you can see below, the three playoff hopefuls are all tied with the same record atop the division.
| Place | Team | Record |
| 1 | Jaguars | 9-7 |
| 2 | Colts | 9-7 |
| 3 | Texans | 9-7 |
| 4 | Titans | 5-11 |
So, why are the Jaguars in first place? Well, the Jaguars have the best divisional record of the bunch at 4-1. That will position them to stay atop the division if they can win in Week 18 over the Titans, as they will be the only team that can get to five divisional wins.
The Jaguars also own a direct head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts, who they swept in 2023, so that will give them an advantage in any two-way tiebreaker involving Indianapolis. The Texans split the season series with the Jaguars, so they would fall to them via the divisional tiebreaker.
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If the Jaguars lose in Week 18, however, then the winner of the Colts vs. Texans game will take home the AFC South title. That game figures to be a toss-up, but the Colts won the meeting between the two squads 31-20 in Week 2. As such, the Colts may have an advantage in this one, especially considering that the game is in Indianapolis.
But if Houston turns the tables, then the Texans may be positioned to make a last-minute push for the division title.
Even if the Jaguars beat the Titans, the Colts-Texans game will be consequential for the wild-card race. The winner of it will have the inside track to the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture. The Colts currently are in control of that, but the Texans can overtake them in that race with a victory.
So, while the Jaguars are likely to win the AFC South, there is still plenty to be decided within the division.