With a busy New Year's weekend in the books, the NFL should have been dominating headlines off just the playoff race, divisional battles, and the MVP discussion. Unfortunately for the league, football fans, and bettors alike, many of the conversations coming out of Sunday ended up being about a tired but still very timely topic: NFL officiating.
After the conclusion of the massively controversial Cowboys-Lions game in Dallas on Saturday night — a game in which the majority of the football world feels Detroit got cheated out of a win — various trending topics including "NFL ref," "referee salary," and "Brad Allen" (the ref responsible for the call that stripped away the Lions' go-ahead two-point conversion). And, of course, we saw certain buzzwords like "rigged" and "fixed" trending on X, likely nails on Roger Goodell's internal chalkboard.
Everybody's main takeaway seems to be How can a sports league worth an estimated $163 billion keep getting so many crucial late-game calls wrong?
Countless bettors on the Twittersphere have already voiced their frustrations and vowed to walk away from betting over officiating inaccuracies, inconsistencies, and incompetence.
According to ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter, the NFL will reportedly "downgrade" Brad Allen and his officiating crew, potentially keeping the entire group out of the playoffs after they "did miss the call...a continuation of a string of high-profile misses from the Brad Allen crew this year."
What were the ramifications of those notorious misses? For the majority of bettors who wagered on these games, they were significant. Let's take a closer look.
Lions-Cowboys: The nearest near upset in NFL history?
When Dan Campbell's Lions drove down the field late in the fourth quarter down seven points on Saturday, everybody knew Detroit would go for two if and when they scored the touchdown. Sure enough, Jared Goff drove the Lions 75 yards down the field in nine plays and 78 seconds, culminating in an 11-yard score by wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. Campbell never even looked at kicker Riley Patterson.
Detroit ran two tackles onto the field, Dan Skipper (#70) and Taylor Decker (#68). Decker is seen in replays approaching Allen and speaking to the ref, at which point Allen went to go speak to Cowboys defenders. Then, Decker caught the go-ahead two-point conversion on a shallow toss to the end zone. Triumphant victory for the visiting Lions barring some last second Dak Prescott heroics, right?
Wrong. Record scratch. The officials deliberated and then determined that Skipper — not Decker — reported as an eligible receiver. Therefore, it was ruled illegal touching (even though Campbell and the Lions allege that they told the refs prior to the game about the play). On the next two-point conversion try, Dallas linebacker Micah Parsons was whistled offsides. On the third attempt, Goff failed to connect with wideout James Mitchell, effectively ending the game.
Goff literally sends Decker over to report.
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) December 31, 2023
Gonna need a new story, officials pic.twitter.com/9lUbyQFChV
The Lions' spread bettors still won on BetMGM — the +5.5 easily covered in the 20-19 battle. However, only 46 percent of the ATS handle was on Detroit and the points. The truly crushing blow was on the moneyline, where a whopping 78 percent of the handle and 87 percent of bets were on the Lions +200.
Bad beat of the century. And one that probably keeps Detroit from hosting a playoff game in a couple weeks. But, as you will soon learn, Allen and his crew have developed a reputation for helping dish out bad beats.
Packers-Chiefs: Blatant non-call costs Chiefs at Lambeau
Toward the end of Patrick Mahomes' first career game at Lambeau Field on Dec. 3, the reigning Super Bowl MVP launched the ball deep downfield to Marques Valdez-Scantling. Packers defensive back Carrington Valentine arrived early, climbed MVS's back, and tackled him well before the wideout had a chance to even make a play at the incoming ball. No flag was thrown.
There was no penalty for pass interference on this late play between Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Carrington Valentine. pic.twitter.com/FFh6BjWx1N
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 4, 2023
The Chiefs ended up turning the ball over on downs with five seconds remaining, sealing the Packers' 27-19 victory over the defending champs. The loss burned the big crowd of bettors that had backed Kansas City, according to BetMGM. Nearly 70 percent of ATS bets were on KC -6.5, and just about half of moneyline bets also sided with the visiting Chiefs (-275).
FOX NFL rules analyst Dean Blandino referred to the no-call as "as obvious a miss as we saw in the 2018 NFC Championship between the Rams and the Saints. He was all over him, playing through the back, arms draped over the receiver, clear material restriction — and this should have been not just one but several flags here. And instead of having a 1st-and-goal inside the 10-yard line with a chance to tie the game, the Chiefs are back at the 50."
Blandino wrapped up his summary of the game's big misses with "I know if I were there, I'd be the first one to tell you 'We have to be better.'"
Saints-Falcons: Yet another big missed DPI
One week before the Chiefs-Packers game, Allen and his crew were in the ATL to officiate the Saints-Falcons game. With 4:07 remaining in the second quarter, the crew failed to throw a flag on yet another plain-as-day DPI.
On 2nd-and-9 at the Falcons' 23-yard line, Saints QB Derek Carr attempted a pass to running back Alvin Kamara, who was being defended by linebacker Kaden Elliss. The pass dropped incomplete on the play, but Elliss clearly made contact with Kamara and never turned around to locate and defend the ball.
The missed call drew the ire of Who Dat Nation, a fanbase that knows all too well about devastating no-calls. New Orleans ultimately settled for a field goal on that drive, cutting the Falcons' lead down to 14-9. The Saints ultimately lost the game 24-15, allowing Atlanta to leapfrog them in the standings. 59 percent of moneyline and spread bets in this game were on New Orleans, and a whopping 65 percent of the ATS handle was on the Saints -1.5.
Dennis Allen's squad now sits outside the playoff bubble, with just a 48 percent probability of making the playoffs with a Week 18 win over, you guessed it... the Falcons. Fortunately for New Orleans fans, Allen and his crew are assigned to the Ravens-Steelers game in Pittsburgh. And if the Saints get in, they probably don't have to worry about seeing Allen in the postseason.
However, the NFL clearly has some ongoing issues with big DPI misses and end-of-game gaffes. Perhaps it's time to discuss allowing more challenges and making every play reviewable. Maybe the league needs to mic up the officials to ensure accountability. And everything inside of 2:00 should be looked at like in the NBA.
Who cares about a little extra time if the rightful outcome is determined? How long will refs become the storyline over the games before we do something about it? As long as these important questions remain unanswered, the NFL and its tri-exclusive partnership with Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings will continue to draw the ire of disappointed fans and bad-beat bettors everywhere.
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