With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, the NFL playoff picture is starting to take form. Four teams (49ers, Ravens, Eagles, and Cowboys) have already clinched a playoff berth, with more teams likely following suit this week. That makes our job of dissecting the 2024 Super Bowl future odds market a bit easier, as we have a clearer sense of the playoff bracket.
Caesars Sportsbook's updated Super Bowl 58 odds pit the NFC-leading 49ers as the team to beat at +210, with their Week 16 opponent, the Ravens (+550), owning the second-best title odds. From there, five other squads' own title odds from the +700 to +1200 range, signifying the rather small gap between some of the league's top Super Bowl contenders.
That said, with 14 teams set to do battle in the postseason, bettors could consider taking a chance of a squad with longer odds. As long as you get in the playoffs, you have a fighting chance to make a deep run (just ask the 2020-21 Buccaneers and the 2010-11 Packers).
Let's take a look at Caesars Sportsbook's full list of Super Bowl 58 odds, offering our best bet, best values, and top fade ahead of Week 16.
2024 Super Bowl Odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
| Team | Odds |
| San Francisco 49ers | +210 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +550 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +700 |
| Miami Dolphins | +850 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +900 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +1200 |
| Detroit Lions | +2000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3500 |
| Cleveland Browns | +5000 |
| Houston Texans | +7000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +8000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +8000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +10000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +10000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +10000 |
| Denver Broncos | +12500 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +12500 |
| Green Bay Packers | +15000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +15000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +20000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +25000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +50000 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +100000 |
| Chicago Bears | +100000 |
| New York Giants | +200000 |
2024 Super Bowl Odds: Best Bet
San Francisco 49ers (+210)
After clinching the NFC West with a 45-29 road win over the Cardinals, the 49ers have an outside chance to claim the NFC's top seed in Week 16, should the Lions, Cowboys, and Eagles all lose. Although it's highly unlikely the 49ers will wrap up the NFC this week, they still sit a game ahead of both the Eagles and Cowboys while also owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, putting them in the driver's seat to lock in home-field advantage.
With the 49ers playing their best football at the right time, winning six straight games with a +97 scoring margin, bettors can't ignore a Super Bowl wager on the league's most dominant squad. The 49ers' "A" game simply beats every other team's "A" game, so we're still enticed by the 49ers at a condensed +210 price tag.
Will anyone be able to go into Levi's Stadium to spoil their Super Bowl hopes? After the 49ers throttled the Cowboys and Eagles by a combined 65 points, we think the Lions are the field's best hope of knocking them out, with their high-powered offense having a chance to keep them competitive.
Monday night's showdown with the Ravens serves as a strong litmus test to see how the 49ers stack up against the AFC favorites. The fact that the 49ers are sitting as 5.5-point home favorites indicates that they would likely close in the -2.5 to -3 range in a potential Super Bowl rematch, with their moneyline hovering around the -150 range.
Barring a slew of major injuries to the 49ers' key players, no team would be favored over them at a neutral site, meaning there's still some value in betting on them to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +210.
2024 Super Bowl Odds: Best Values
Buffalo Bills (+1200)
Buffalo's late-season resurgence has kept them alive in the AFC East race, giving them a chance to enter the postseason with a top-four seed. Buffalo is the decided favorite to win their next two matchups (@ Chargers, vs. Patriots), so there's a real possibility they'll enter a Week 18 showdown against the Dolphins with a 10-6 record.
The Dolphins have a brutal three-game stretch to close out the regular season (vs. Cowboys, @ Ravens, vs. Bills), and a 1-1 record over their next two games means their Week 18 matchup is a de facto AFC East title game. We've seen the Dolphins struggle when they step up in class, which includes a 48-20 road loss to the Bills in Week 4, so a Week 18 flop against the Bills is feasible.
The defense has turned a corner over the past two weeks, keeping Patrick Mahomes in check and holding Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to 195 total yards. Despite blitzing at a below-average rate (22.8%), the Bills rank eighth in pressure rate (23.7%), indicating their ability to generate natural pressure, which suggests they can hold down some of the league's most potent offenses come playoff time.
At 12-1, the Bills are certainly worth a look. Despite their midseason skid, we could see their odds tick down to around the 8-1 mark should they win out and claim the AFC East.
Even if they don’t win the division but still snag a wild-card spot, no team wants to host Josh Allen and company in the first round. It’s challenging to win three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl, but don’t put it past the Bills.
Detroit Lions (+2000)
As mentioned above, we believe the Lions pose the biggest threat to the 49ers in the NFC given their offense's ability to keep pace in any potential NFC Championship game matchup.
Yes, Detroit's defense has shown some vulnerabilities of late, but everything is relative to the betting market. The market simply doesn’t believe in the Lions' chances, as somehow a likely top-three NFC seed has 20-1 Super Bowl odds. How can you not take a shot on Dan Campbell’s crew winning four games in a single-elimination format at 20-1?
The Lions' offense still ranks within the top eight of the league in both EPA per play (0.048) and success rate (45.8%), although the defense is below league average in those same metrics. That said, as long as Aaron Glenn's defense does its job in the red zone and gets some turnover luck, the likely NFC North champs could very well make a deep playoff run.
2024 Super Bowl Odds: Top Fade
Philadelphia Eagles (+900)
After a 10-1 start, water has found its level for the now 10-4 Eagles. Philadelphia is still in the driver's seat to win the NFC East, but this team doesn’t have the same vibe as last year’s NFC championship squad.
The reeling Eagles' defense ranks 29th in drop-back EPA at 0.087, which means every time a QB drops back to pass, they’re gaining almost 1/10th of a point on the scoreboard. That might not seem like a lot, but it is.
We don't expect the Eagles to get bounced in the first round, but it wouldn't surprise us if they lost at home in the Divisional Round, potentially against the third-seeded Lions, barring a reseed. With the betting market still respecting Philly by giving them the fifth-best odds to win Super Bowl 58, we see other ways to attack the futures market than by wagering on a team trending in the wrong direction.
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