Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy traveled different paths to the College Football Playoff championship game.
Penix Jr. – a sixth-year left-handed quarterback – started in the Big Ten with Indiana. He battled injuries through his career with the Hoosiers before transferring to Washington, and the last two years have been remarkable. Penix Jr. averaged 4,645 yards and 33 TDs the last two seasons, and now he has No. 2 Washington (14-0) one win away from its first national championship since 1991.
"I think the production and then who he is as a person, and on the production piece, he's got a skill set that is – I think it makes him the best player in the country," Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said on the CFP teleconference Wednesday.
McCarthy – a five-star quarterback – took over the starting job at Michigan in 2022 as a sophomore and has not looked back. He's 26-1 as a starter, and that run has come with back-to-back Big Ten championships. No. 1 Michigan (14-0) is one win away from its first national championship since 1997, and coach Jim Harbaugh has declared that McCarthy is the best QB in school history.
"I've said it before, but right here, this is the greatest quarterback in University of Michigan – college football history," Harbaugh said after the Rose Bowl on Monday.
It's a fantastic quarterback matchup. Let's break it down ahead of Monday's game.
MORE: SN experts make their picks for Monday's final
J.J. McCarthy vs. Michael Penix Jr.
Traditional stats
Penix has the better passing stats in yards and TDs, and not all of that is a product of the different offensive styles between the Huskies and Wolverines. There is no question there is no more volume, but the fact Penix was able to maintain a 163.5 passer rating with almost 200 more attempts than McCarthy is impressive.
| Penix | Stat | McCarthy |
| 336-504 (66.7%) | Comp-Att (%) | 230-314 (73.2%) |
| 4,658 | Passing yards | 2,851 |
| 332.7 | Passing ypg | 203.6 |
| 35 | Passing TDs | 22 |
| 9 | Ints | 4 |
| 163.5 | Rating | 170.1 |
| 32 | Rushing attempts | 60 |
| 13 | Rushing yards | 171 |
| 3 | Rushing TDs | 3 |
Where does McCarthy win on the stat sheet? He ranks third in the FBS in completion percentage and has the higher passer rating. He has just 11 career interceptions in 695 pass attempts. He has not made too many mistakes despite an uncanny ability to extend plays. He also is more of a threat to run than Penix.
Will that change in Houston with Michigan's aggressive pass rush?
Edge: Penix
MORE: Four-team CFP era sent off in style
Deep-ball threat
The built-in shot play is a huge part of Washington's offense, and Penix had the ninth-best passer rating on passes for 20 yards or more, according to Pro Football Focus. Yet Washington clearly will take more chances with a talented group of receivers that includes Rome Odunze, Ja'lynn Polk and Jaden McMillan.
| Penix | Stat | McCarthy |
| 50-108 (46.3%) | Comp-Att (%) | 24-45 (53.3%) |
| 1,743 | Passing yards | 669 |
| 16 | Passing TDs | 10 |
| 7 | INTs | 1 |
McCarthy can throw the deep ball, too, even if Michigan does not use it as much. It was the difference in the 2022 matchup with Ohio State - which the Wolverines won 45-23 at Ohio Stadium. The only interception McCarthy threw on a pass of 20 yards or more was against Bowling Green on Sept. 16. Favorite target Roman Wilson caught 11 of 17 targets on passes of 20 yards or more this season, according to PFF. When Michigan airs it out, that's where the ball is going.
Washington will test the vertical game more with Penix, but McCarthy is more efficient with less attempts.
Edge: Tie
Against the blitz
The Wolverines are going to try to get after Penix, and with good reason. He was only pressured on 26.1% of his drop-back attempts. He is 55 of 122 (45.1%) for 1,014 yards with five TDs and three interceptions when under pressure, according to PFF. When blitzed, Penix is 107 of 177 (60.5%) for 1,602 yards, 13 TDs and four INTs.
McCarthy was only pressured on 30.5% of his drop-backs. McCarthy was 48 of 77 (62.3%) with eight TDs and three interceptions under pressure, and he was 78 of 112 (69.6%) for 1,144 yards, six TDs and three interceptions when blitzed. Penix took 11 sacks. McCarthy took 18.
Still, the percentages favor McCarthy here under duress.
Edge: McCarthy
BENDER: Michigan's ultimate dream has one more step
QBs vs. Top 25
McCarthy made four starts against teams ranked in the AP Top 25, and he played well in those games. McCarthy was 62 of 85 passing (72.9%) with 576 yards and four TDs, and that included victories against Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama.
They are not prolific numbers, but keep in mind the Wolverines did not have an official passing attempt in the second half against the Nittany Lions, and the Buckeyes are the No. 2 scoring defense in the FBS. McCarthy had 221 passing yards and three TDs in the 27-20 victory against No. 4 Alabama on Monday.
Penix was 137 of 214 (64%) for 1,801 yards, 13 TDs and three interceptions in six games against ranked teams. He took only five sacks in those games and averaged a touch more than 300 yards. Penix had 430 yards and three TDs in the 37-31 victory against No. 3 Texas in the AllState Sugar Bowl.
Edge: Penix
Crunch time
Penix’s signature moment was an 18-yard TD pass to Odunze in the 36-33 victory against Oregon on Oct. 14. Penix is 54 of 87 (62.1%) with 626 yards, three TDs and an interception in the fourth quarter. He has a 140 passer rating when the Huskies trail this season – which wasn’t very often. Penix is 25-2 as the Huskies’ starter the last two seasons.
McCarthy led the game-tying fourth-quarter drive against Alabama – a rare occasion where the Wolverines were playing without the lead this season.
That improved McCarthy to 26-1 as Michigan’s starter. McCarthy is 22 of 31 (71%) with one TD in the fourth quarter, and he has a 192.2 passer rating when the Wolverines are playing without the lead.
"J.J. was tremendous in the way he handled the pressure moments in the ballgame," Harbaugh said Wednesday.
Edge: Tie
NFL prospects
Penix's draft stock elevated after the impressive Sugar Bowl victory against Texas, and the winner of this game could see an increase in value ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.
In his latest NFL Mock Draft, SN's Vinnie Iyer has both quarterbacks being selected in the first round. Iyer has the Los Angeles Rams taking Penix with the No. 14 pick. Iyer writes: "Penix is a smooth, confident pocket passer with the arm to get the ball accurately all over the field. The Rams will be fine with his limited athleticism in their system for Sean McVay as the ideal successor to Matthew Stafford."
Iyer has McCarthy going to the Atlanta Falcons with the No. 19 pick. McCarthy has not announced whether he will enter the 2024 NFL Draft. Iyer writes: "McCarthy has had a meteoric rise to Heisman contender with Nix and Penix during a dazzling breakout season. He's a flat-out athletic playmaker who throws well out of the pocket and shows great zip on all of his passes. The Falcons need to draft a QB, whether or not it's for Arthur Smith."
Both quarterbacks are perceived as middle-of-the-first-round quarterbacks. It’s debatable how much a strong performance in the CFP championship would change that. Despite the latest mock, we think McCarthy will go slightly higher in the draft if he comes out this season.
Edge: Tie