It appears that third time’s the charm for Michigan, as the Wolverines defeated Alabama in the Rose Bowl to earn a spot in the national championship game, where they will face Washington for the 2023-24 CFP national championship.
The Wolverines opened as small favorites against the Huskies, and the point spread currently sits at Michigan , with Washington available for on the moneyline. While recent history has been kind to the betting favorites in the CFP title game, it has been better to underdogs overall.
CFP national championship odds: Michigan favored to lift trophy
The betting favorite in the title game went on to win the CFP national championship the last four seasons. But the underdog won the first five. Here are live Michigan vs. Texas odds from top sports betting apps:
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CFP national championship betting trends
- The No. 1 seed has played in the national championship game seven times out of nine.
- The No. 1 seed was the favorite in five of those seven games; they were 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS when the underdog.
- Favorites are 4-5 SU and ATS in national championship games.
- The favorite won the last four SU and ATS; the OVER was 3-1.
- In each title game where the underdog won, the OVER was 1-4.
- Undefeated teams are 2-0 when facing a team with one loss.
- The national championship game has featured two undefeated teams three times (18-19, 19-20 and 20-21). The higher seeded team is 2-1 SU and ATS.
- The No. 2 seed has played in the national championship game four times, three times vs. the No. 1 seed.
- The No. 2 seed is 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS. Against the No. 1 seed, they were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Michigan betting trends and news
- Michigan is 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS. The OVER was 7-6-1
- When favored by single-digits, Michigan is 3-0 SU and ATS.
- The OVER was 0-4 to start the season but 7-2-1 the rest of the way (3-1 in the last four).
- The OVER was 1-3-1 in games where the TOTAL was 50-plus.
- Michigan last won the national championship in 1997 after beating Washington State in the Rose Bowl.
- The Wolverines have won 11 national championships (1901-04, ’18, ’23, ’32-33, ‘47-48 and ’97).
- Michigan leads the all-time series vs. Washington, 8-5, including the last two (both played in Ann Arbor).
Washington betting trends and news
- Washington is 14-0 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. The OVER was 7-6-1
- Washington is 3-0 when the underdog this season.
- The OVER is 1-2 in games where Washington was the underdog. The one win was in the CFP semifinal vs. Texas.
- The OVER is 4-6 when the total has been 60-plus.
- Washington last won the national championship in 1991 after beating Michigan in the Rose Bowl. They won their only other title in 1960.
- Washington is 2-2 SU vs. Michigan in postseason play (four Rose Bowls); Michigan won the last Rose Bowl vs. Washington (1993), 38-31.
Michigan vs. Washington analysis
It seems that third time’s the charm for Michigan after qualifying for the CFP and losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. A win in the title game will be an exceptional way for the Wolverines to cap off a season that saw their head coach suspended twice for three games.
Washington will, of course, not make it easy for Michigan. The Huskies bring an impressive offense to the table:
- Total offense: 469.1 YPG (No. 10)
- Rushing offense: 125.2 YPG (No. 97)
- Passing offense: 343.8 YPG (No. 1)
- Scoring: 37.7 PPG (No. 10)
- Sacks allowed: No. 5
- Tackles for a loss allowed: No. 5
They are not good at running the ball and may find it even harder if Dillon Johnson is unable to play after being helped/carried off the field toward the end of the Sugar Bowl. But when the offensive line does such a great job of protecting the quarterback, that may not matter.
It will not be easy to throw for 300-plus yards against the Michigan defense, though:
- Total defense: 239.7 YPG allowed (No. 1)
- Rushing defense: 87.1 YPG (No. 5)
- Passing defense: 152.6 YPG (No. 2)
- Scoring defense: 9.5 PPG (No. 1)
Putting pressure on Michael Penix Jr. could be crucial for the Wolverines defense, but they were not known for making plays in the backfield this year (sacks: No. 36; TFLs: No. 70).
As good as Michigan’s defense is, it would certainly help if the offense could lend a hand.
While it has not been as productive as Washington’s in terms of yards, the Wolverines averaged almost as many points per game:
- Total offense: 380.5 YPG (No. 68)
- Rushing offense: 161.8 YPG (No. 60)
- Passing offense: 218.8 YPG (No. 70)
- Scoring: 36.7 PPG (No. 12)
- Sacks allowed: No. 28
- Tackles for a loss allowed: No. 4
However, the Michigan offense could have a day against a Washington defense that did not rank well nationally in several defensive categories:
- Total defense: 396.9 YPG (No. 90)
- Rushing defense: 133.8 YPG (No. 37)
- Passing defense: 263.2 YPG (No. 119)
- Scoring defense: 23.6 PPG (No. 49)
- Sacks: No. 120
- TFLs: No. 117
But the Huskies defense frustrated a good Texas offense for most of the Sugar Bowl.
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