In the NFL's Week 18 final regular-season matchup, the Buffalo Bills (10-6) are in Florida on Sunday Night Football to face the Miami Dolphins (11-5). The AFC East crown goes to the victor.
The division champion also clinches the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
The Dolphins would wind up as a No. 6 seed if they lose. If the Bills lose, it's possible they could wind up empty-handed and sit out the postseason, depending on how three other games play out.
When the early odds were listed for this game Sunday evening, the Bills were a 3-point favorite. The current Bills vs. Dolphins odds have Buffalo as favorites, with Miami getting on the moneyline, and the OVER/UNDER point total at .
Miami has gone 10-6 against the spread. It's been not so great for betting backers of Buffalo, which has gone 6-10 on the ATS chart. One of those spread-beating victories came in Week 4 when the Bills pummeled the visiting Dolphins 48-20 as a 3-point choice.
On the OVER/UNDER board, Miami games have gone OVER nine times in 16 outings. Buffalo has done so six times.
Bills vs. Dolphins odds: Point spread, moneyline, total on Sunday Night Football matchup
Here's the latest NFL betting odds for Bills vs. Dolphins:
The Bills have frolicked against the Dolphins in their past 11 meetings, dating to QB Josh Allen's rookie season in 2018. Allen has won 10 times, and Buffalo has an average winning margin of 17 points. Allen totaled 32 TD passes and five interceptions in that span.
In their earlier meeting this season, he had a perfect passing rating (158.3) with four scoring passes in that 28-point victory in Buffalo.
In Allen's most recent outing in Miami, in Week 3 last season, he threw for 400 yards. The Bills ran 90 plays to Miami's 39 and outgained the Dolphins, 497-212.
Yet that was the lone game Buffalo lost to the Dolphins (21-19) in that 11-game stretch, which includes a 34-31 playoff victory last season.
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa didn't play in that wild-card game (concussion protocol), but he's started every game this year and has the league's most passing yards. Allen stands seventh.
NFL betting action: NFL Week 18 ATS picks | NFL Week 18 Sharp Money Report
Bills vs. Dolphins injury news
Here is the current injury report for the Bills vs. Dolphins:
Buffalo had five players listed on the injury report earlier this week, with Allen the most notable (neck, right finger). But he was a full-go in drills.
For Miami, which had 18 players on the report, 1,000-yard rusher Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle sat out drills Wednesday, three days after missing last week's game in Baltimore.
Tagovailoa's quad/shoulder issues might concern the Dolphins, but he participated fully in Wednesday's practice.
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Bills betting news
If Buffalo at least ties Miami, it will qualify for the postseason.
But if the Bills lose Sunday, they would need one of the following outcomes to occur earlier in the day to make it -- for favored Pittsburgh to lose or tie at Baltimore, for favored Jacksonville to lose or tie at Tennessee, or for Houston and Indianapolis to tie.
Allen has guided Buffalo to four straight victories, but the Bills stood three games behind Miami at 6-6 before this streak. They had odds of +1600 to win the division at the time. They were available at +5000 to win the Super Bowl.
Nowadays, you can't get anywhere near those numbers. Buffalo's Super Bowl odds are , and it is the moneyline favorite to down Miami and win the East.
Meanwhile, the Bills aren't relying on Allen's passing as much as in the past. They're averaging 37 rushes in their past six outings after not hitting that number in any of their first 10 games.
Leading the way is RB James Cook, who highlighted his season with a bulldozing 25-carry, 179-yard game against Dallas.
Information: Best NFL betting sites | Super Bowl odds | NFL MVP odds
Dolphins betting news
Last week, Miami had a chance to clinch the East and take over the top seed in the AFC, at least temporarily, if it could win at Baltimore. Instead, the Dolphins lost by 37 points.
As mentioned above, Miami is hurting on offense, including the line, but expected to get back at least one starter who sat out last week. Plus, star CB Jalen Ramsey is healthy after he missed their previous outing (IR).
Bills vs. Dolphins props
Let's look at some prop bets for the Bills vs. Dolphins at top-rated sportsbook apps nationwide.
Anytime TD Scorer (FanDuel)
- Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert: (-170)
- Dolphins RB De'Von Achane: (-170)
- Bills QB Josh Allen: (-135)
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: (-130)
- Bills WR Stefon Diggs: (+125)
- Bills RB James Cook: (+135)
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: (+950)
Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill Over/Under 94.5: (-115)
- Bills WR Stefon Diggs Over/Under 60.5: (-115)
Bills vs. Dolphins predictions
Although Buffalo is on that four-game winning streak, its past two outings have been head-scratchers. A 24-22 win as a 13-point favorite in LA against a Chargers team that had just fired its coach and last week's 27-21 victory at home against New England as a 15-point choice weren't convincing.
Buffalo didn't come close to covering the spread, despite having a 23-yard edge in average starting field position and a plus-four turnover advantage.
We also wonder what's going on with star Bills WR Stefon Diggs. After having 100-plus receiving yards in five of his first six games, he hasn't had any since.
Ramsey, who earned his seventh straight Pro Bowl, will likely hound him.
Prediction: Dolphins and OVER
How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 7
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium -- Miami Gardens, FL
- Where to Watch: NBC
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