In 2018, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje competed in a violent classic, showcasing a toughness that has continued to make them endeared by MMA fans all over. They run it back at UFC 291 on July 29. This time, they fight for the BMF Title.
UFC 291 airs on ESPN+ PPV in the U.S., emanating from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Since they last fought, Poirier and Gaethje have gone 6-2, with both losses coming against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. They look to return to the top to fight for gold.
Also on the card, two former champions clash in the main event as Jan Blachowicz faces Alex Pereira, while Tony Ferguson looks to return to his winning ways. Fan-favorite Derrick Lewis is back in action, along with Miranda Maverick.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 291 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
Get ready fight fans because this is a loaded card. Beyond the possible Fight of the Year main event, who will come out on top?
The Sporting News breaks down every fight on the UFC 291 card.
UFC 291 card predictions
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2 for the BMF Title
Per Sports Interaction, Dustin Poirier is the -150 favorite, while Justin Gaethje is the +120 underdog.
The last time these two fought, Poirier landed 174 significant strikes while Gaethje landed 115. After Poirier won, both went 6-2, each landing an absurd amount of strikes against opponents. Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute with a 50% strike accuracy mark, while Gaethje lands 7.38 significant strikes per minute with a 60% strike accuracy mark. Only two of Poirier's last eight bouts since the Gaethje fight have gone the distance, the same for Gaethje.
Gaethje landed over 50 leg kicks last time out, which Poirier has worked to avoid. Something to keep an eye on is the damage Gaethje has taken, as he absorbs 7.66 significant strikes per minute (4.25 for Poirier). Both are boxing fighters, but Poirier has become reserved with his offense, striking when the iron is hot. Gaethje has improved his strike defense over time, but has the damage already been done heading into another war with Poirier?
Multiple fight night bonuses, a history of violence, and respect are all themes in this bout. These are the fighters who deserve the status of the ultimate BMF. This fight could go either way, but Poirier appears to have the momentum and the capabilities to adapt against someone like Gaethje.
Sporting News prediction: Poirier via TKO (round four)
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira; Light Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jan Blachowicz is the -115 favorite, while Alex Pereira is not far behind as the -110 underdog.
What a unique matchup pitting the former UFC light heavyweight champion in Blachowicz against the former UFC middleweight champion in Pereira. Blachowicz is 1-1-1 in his last three, fighting Magomed Ankalaev to a draw in December. Pereira got knocked out against rival Israel Adesanya in April, ending his impressive seven-fight win streak to start his MMA career.
A former KSW light heavyweight champion, Blachowicz lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute (5.23 for Pereira), with a strike accuracy mark of 49% (59%for Pereira). While Pereira has the edge in that department, Blachowicz’s ground game is somewhat superior, averaging 0.97 takedowns compared to 0.28 for “Poatan,” known for struggling on the floor.
The question remains if, at 40, Blachowicz's gas tank can take a long fight if he can't end it right away. If not, Pereira, who halted Sean Strickland in his tracks before he could even land a takedown, may take advantage. Pereira’s inflicts pain and his striking could be the difference. If he can break Blachowicz, we may see the next big contender at light heavyweight.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via TKO (round two)
Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Stephen Thompson is the -175 favorite, while Michel Pereira is the +135 underdog.
Thompson is 2-2 in his last four fights, lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute, and has a strike accuracy mark of 45%. He looked like vintage "Wonderboy" against Kevin Holland, landing 163 significant strikes. Pereira, on a five-fight win streak, lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 54%. He has landed a total of 217 significant strikes in two straight bouts.
"Wonderboy" uses his lead leg to jab away at his opponent, looking for that weakness at a wide range to strike them down. While a solid counter-puncher, his chin has shown weakness over the years. It makes for a unique matchup against a unique fighter in Pereira, once known for backflips and running all over the cage. Using his right hand, Pereira has boxed his way through his opponents defense.
MORE: How to bet on combat sports
If Pereira can work past Thompson's defense or take him down (averaging 1.58 takedowns landed per 15 minutes), "Demolidor" could defy the odds.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via unanimous decision
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Bobby Green is the -410 favorite, while Tony Ferguson is the +285 underdog.
It is a tough fight if you are a Tony Ferguson fan, which has been a saying for the past few years. "El Cucuy" is on a five-fight losing streak, which has involved being in a brutal beatdown against Justin Gaethe, getting front-kicked to hell by Michael Chandler, and submitted by Nate Diaz. During that time, he has gotten taken down seven times and struck 335 (significant strikes) times.
Ferguson has absorbed 3.95 significant strikes, while he has landed 5.07 per minute. Meanwhile, Bobby Green lands 5.97 per minute and absorbs 3.67. "King" is on a three-fight losing streak since Islam Makhachev took him out in 2022. Ferguson has a solid wrestling game, but Green averages 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes (0.44 for Ferguson).
Both badly need a win. Green is starting to slow down but may not have an issue with Ferguson’s decline. The latter has to show he has a second wind, but will his reflexes fail him?
Sporting News prediction: Green via TKO (round one)
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Kevin Holland is the -160 favorite, while Michael Chiesa is the +125 underdog.
Both fighters are going in unique directions. Chiesa is on a two-fight losing streak that ended a four-fight win streak. He was taken down five times and got submitted with a D'Arce Choke. Holland is 2-2 in his last four and has improved his game since not winning a single fight in three contests in 2021.
Holland lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 52% (Chiesa lands 1.88 and has a strike accuracy mark of 41%). On the ground is where things get interesting. While he got taken down five times against Sean Brady, Chiesa has landed 17 in five fights. Holland has gotten taken down six times during that span, and going back further, got taken down eleven times against Marvin Vettori and six times against Derek Brunson.
Often, Holland has shown he has a terrible fighter IQ. On the other side, he has shown signs of brilliance at welterweight. The latter should come into play here against a hesitant Chiesa.
Sporting News prediction: Holland via unanimous decision
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Gabriel Bonfim is the -375 favorite, while Trevin Giles is the +260 underdog.
Giles is on a two-fight win streak after being knocked out twice. He lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 54%. Bonfirm, a Dana White's Contender Series alum, has won two in a row inside the octagon a row via submission and has won eleven bouts that way.
A UFC veteran since 2017, Giles has seen better days, failing to beat elite competition. While new to the octagon, Bonfirm has dropped opponents, ragdolling them to submission. That may be the case here, as Giles’s misfortunes may return.
Sporting News prediction: Bonfim via submission (round one)
MORE: Will Joe Rogan be at UFC 291?
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima; Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Marcos Rogerio de Lima is the -250 favorite, while Derrick Lewis is the -180 underdog.
Lewis is on a three-fight losing streak, getting beaten via knockout twice and submission in his last bout. That ended “The Black Beast’s” 5-1 run, as he never landed a significant strike in his last bout. While he lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute, he has been outstruck (landing 61 strikes compared to 159 by his past five opponents). Meanwhile, de Lima averages 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute.
de Lima averages 1.35 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing four in three fights. Lewis got taken down six times by Serghei Spivac. While Lewis is known to strike while the iron is hot, his offense and defense have been lackadaisical. Meanwhile, de Lima has become a rising star at heavyweight and looks to continue his momentum.
Lewis can land the perfect knockout, but if de Lima swarms him, it may be a tough night at the office for the former.
Sporting News prediction: de Lima via TKO (round two)
Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Roman Kopylov is the -230 favorite, while Claudio Ribeiro is the +170 underdog.
After going 0-2 to start his UFC career, Kopylov has won two in a row, both violently. He lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute, landing 82 and a vicious kick to knock Punahele Soriano in January. Ribeiro impressed with a first-round knockout on an episode of Dana White's Contender Series and has gone 1-1 since. He lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute.
A former FNG middleweight champion, Kopylov is a competent boxer with nine wins via the power punch. He can last a long time in the cage, outworking his opponents. That may be the case here, as Ribeiro’s durability has yet to get tested past the third round except once. He is a knockout artist, but inside the octagon Kopylov appears to be the better fighter.
Sporting News prediction: Kopylov via TKO (round three)
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 291 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jake Matthews is the -290 favorite, while Darrius Flowers is the +215 underdog.
Flowers burst onto the scene when he slammed down Amiran Gogoladze on an episode of Dana White's Contender Series to increase his win streak to four. Matthews joined the UFC in 2014 and is 2-2 in his last four, as he just came off a loss against Matthew Semelsberger. "The Celtic Kid" lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 44%. He averages 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown defense mark of 60%.
Flowers can smash his way to a win, but Matthews, who struggled against Semelsberger, will not have to worry too much about "Beast Mode's" ground game, but still needs to be aware of his surroundings. If Matthews can clip Flowers early or tire him out, the 28-year-old can pull off the win.
Sporting News prediction: Matthews via unanimous decision
C.J. Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, C.J. Vergara is the -160 favorite, while Vinicius Salvador is the +120 underdog.
Vergara, a Fury FC flyweight champion, is 3-2 in the UFC, including an impressive win against Bruno Korea on Dana White's Contender Series. He lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 56%. Salvador impressed on DWCS against Shannon Ross but lost his last bout against Victor Altamirano, getting brought down three times. He averages 5.17 significant strikes landed per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 41%.
Salvador has a two-inch reach advantage and a one-inch height advantage. While "Fenomeno" is new to the octagon, his 13 wins via knockout are something to watch out for. If he can stand and bang with Vergara, who got outstruck in two bouts before his last fight, he may take down the Texas native.
Sporting News prediction: Salvador via TKO (round two)
MORE: Breaking down the history of the BMF Title
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Matthew Semelsberger is the -235 favorite, while Uros Medic is the +170 underdog.
Semelsberger is 2-2 in his last two bouts, getting dropped six times by Jeremiah Wells in April. Medic is 3-1 inside the octagon, filling in for Yohan Lainesse. The former has landed an average of 4.05 significant strikes per minute (with a strike accuracy mark of 43%), while Medic has averaged 8.14 with a strike accuracy mark of 66%. Medic has a takedown defense mark of 66%, which could help against Semelsberger's 1.16 average takedown landed mark.
It's not hard to think that an upset is possible. However, Medic recently struggled against some of the UFC's best, and Semelsberger performed well against Jake Matthews to end 2022. Semelsberger’s power may be too much for Medic.
Sporting News prediction: Semelsberger via TKO (round one)
Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Miranda Maverick is the -300 favorite, while Priscila Cachoeira is the +215 underdog.
MORE: Assessing the options for Alex Volkanovski's next fight
Maverick is 4-3 in the UFC and coming off a loss against Jasmine Jasudavicius. Cachoeira is on a two-fight win streak and 4-4 in the UFC. The latter averages 4.68 significant strikes per minute (3.82 for Maverick), while Maverick has a strike accuracy mark of 45% (43% for Cachoeira). On the ground is where Maverick has the edge, averaging 2.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with nine in her last three fights. While she has a takedown defense of 65%, Cachoeira might not be able to outlast Maverick’s grappling skills.
Jasudavicius was a significant threat to Maverick, halting any part of her ground game. Expect the opposite here, with Maverick outworking Cachoeira.