AFC East standings: What Bills' win, Dolphins' loss in Week 17 mean for divisional race, NFL playoffs

Author Photo
Ed Oliver
(Getty Images)

When the Bills dropped consecutive games against the Bengals and Broncos in Weeks 9 and 10 of the season, many wrote them off as playoff contenders.

At the time, Buffalo was just 5-5 on the season and was set to face a brutal schedule to close the 2023 NFL season. The belief was that the team would have trouble emerging from the crowded AFC if its offense didn't improve and its defense didn't overcome some injury woes.

But now, with one week left in the 2023 NFL season, the Bills have all but wrapped up a playoff spot and may have a chance to steal the AFC East from the Dolphins.

MORE: Live updated standings, clinching scenarios for NFL playoffs in Week 17

The Bills earned a measure of revenge in Week 17 by earning a victory over the Patriots. Buffalo's defense scored a touchdown and forced Bailey Zappe into three turnovers while Josh Allen ran for two scores to lead the Bills to a 27-21 win.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins dropped their second game in the last four as they were dominated by the Ravens. Miami's defense couldn't contain Lamar Jackson, who racked up 321 passing yards and five touchdowns in the 56-19 Baltimore blowout.

The Dolphins remain an 11-win team and are still among the top contenders in the AFC. However, their recent downturn coupled with Buffalo's hot streak has put them in danger of losing their grip on the AFC East and becoming a wild-card team instead.

MORE: Lamar Jackson sews up case for second MVP with 5-TD showing vs. Dolphins

AFC East standings

At present, the Dolphins are still in first place in the AFC East. They have a record of 11-5 after their loss to the Ravens while the Bills improved to 10-6 after their win over the Patriots.

Below is a look at how the AFC East standings shake out after Week 17.

Place Team Record
1 Dolphins 11-5
2 Bills 10-6
3 Jets 6-10
4 Patriots 4-12

Because of Buffalo's win and Miami's loss, the division remains up for grabs with one week left to play.

The Bills need to make up just one game on the Dolphins to overtake them in the standings. If they finish with the same record, Buffalo would win the division, as the Bills own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins thanks to their 48-20 win over Miami in Week 4.

Buffalo would have to maintain that tiebreaker through Week 18 to match Miami in the standings. Why? Because the Bills and Dolphins are set to play one another in the final game of the season.

MORE: Why Von Miller didn't play for the Bills in Week 17, explained

Because of that scheduling quirk, the Bills vs. Dolphins game will be a winner-take-all battle for the AFC East. The victor will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff picture and will earn the right to host two home playoff games — provided that the No. 7 seed doesn't beat them in the wild-card round.

What happens to the loser? Well, that depends on who the loser is. If the Dolphins lose, they will likely be the No. 6 seed in the AFC. If the Bills lose, they would need the Steelers to lose to the Ravens to make it into the postseason (barring a tie in the Colts-Texans game).

So, the Bills could be anything from the No. 2 seed in the AFC to out of the playoffs depending on their Week 18 results.

All that's to say that the Dolphins vs. Bills game will be among the most important matchups of Week 18. Expect there to be a lot of attention paid to the contest whenever it kicks off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Author(s)
Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker is a senior content producer at The Sporting News.