Author Photo
Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen
(Getty Images)

What are the best of many potential player prop bets to consider for the Week 18 Sunday night regular-season finale between the Bills and Dolphins in Miami?

Here's picking four to target, including interesting totals for the QBs, straight from the Sports Interaction matchup betting board for the game

Best Bills-Dolphins prop bets: Sports Interaction player prop picks for Week 18 SNF

1. Josh Allen, QB, Bills — OVER 35.5 rushing yards

Allen had only 17 rushing yards in the first meeting in Buffalo, but the Bills dominated that game 48-20 offensively and defensively in Week 4 and had little reason to have Allen scramble. This game should be tighter with every yard counting more with the AFC East title at stake. The Bills won't have nearly the same easy time on the road.

Allen will face a tougher pass defense that will be ready to make amends for the coverage disaster against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. The Dolphins will make sure they protect against the big downfield pass plays. That should open up some running lanes and wide-open spaces, working out well for James Cook and Allen on the ground. Allen has averaged more than 50 yards rushing per game in his career vs. the Dolphins.

2. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins — OVER 263.5 passing yards

Tagovailoa can't count on the running game doing too much here with Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) banged up and the Bills containing speedsters such as De'Von Achane. Although Jaylen Waddle (ankle) is hurting, Mike McDaniel can't curb the passing game too much, so Tagovailoa can keep up with the Bills' output around Allen. Tagovailoa threw for 282 yards in a negative game script in the first meeting, and there's a fair chance the Dolphins will be behind in this game vs. it being an even shootout.

3. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills  —  UNDER 59.5 receiving yards

Diggs has disappeared as a key factor in Buffalo's offense over the past several weeks. In fact, he hasn't posted a 100-yard receiving game since Week 6 against the Giants. Here are his receiving yardage totals from his most recent seven games: 26, 29, 48, 24, 74, 27, 34. 

That's not fluky -- that's a trend. Given that the Bills have won four consecutive games after the bye using less of the Allen-to-Diggs formula, the total here has been adjusted accordingly. We also have to factor in that Diggs is likely to see shadow cornerback coverage from Jalen Ramsey while Allen sees much easier matchups develop downfield for No. 2 wideout Gabe Davis and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid.

4. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills — OVER 15.5 yards on longest reception

Kincaid is a plus athlete and a big-play receiver disguised as a tight end. He can use his speed and quickness to be a real game-changer here, as he wasn't a factor in the first meeting. Kincaid had been quiet himself for several weeks, but he blew up for four catches and 87 yards on seven targets in a tough matchup vs. the Patriots in Week 17, including a 51-yard connection with Allen. The Dolphins have struggled to cover the tight end and have allowed some field-stretching to the position, so it lines up well for Kincaid to stay involved and impactful.

If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.

Author(s)
Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.