Four second round sleepers in the 2023 NBA Draft that the stats love

The Grizzlies have been one of the best teams in the league at finding sleeper picks outside of the lottery. Players like John Konchar, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman and David Roddy have become solid rotation players for them. 

Interestingly, all of those players had similar statistical profiles. That may not be a coincidence — USA Today writer Bryan Kalbrosky cleverly reverse-engineered some of the statistical filters that the Grizzlies seemed to be using in order to pinpoint their hidden gems. All of those players shot well from the field, rebounded and assisted at a high rate, and generated a good amount of blocks and steals. 

So what do these Grizzlies filters say about the players in this year's class?

Here are four prospects that stand out as second round sleepers based on their statistical profile. 

Four second round sleepers in the 2023 NBA Draft that the stats love

Justyn Mutts — Forward, Virginia Tech

My favorite sleepers are players who are super productive but don’t fit the traditional mold. Nikola Jokic was already a great player in Europe, for example, but he didn’t look the part of an NBA athlete. Jeremy Lin popped in draft models, but scouts didn’t know what to do with the fact that he was an Asian kid from Harvard. 

Mutts is another one of those types of guys who has a bunch of atypical quirks. He’s already 24 years old. He lists getting his PhD as one of his goals — he already has two masters degrees under his belt. 

Mutts may not have the biographical markings of a top prospect, but he had great production last season at Virginia Tech, where he averaged 13.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. 

Mutts’ style of play is also difficult to put into a box. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, he projects as a small ball five. He has fantastic passing instincts and good defensive versatility, along with a nice post game. His jump shot is still a work in progress, though — he hit only 30.3 percent of his 3s over his college career, although he improved to 32.5 percent last season on fairly low volume. His career 64.0 percent shooting on free throws also gives concerns about how much that shooting touch can be developed.

Despite those weaknesses, Mutts is an extremely fun prospect to watch. He's not on many draft boards, including our own from draft expert Kyle Irving. But his statistical indicators scream out that he knows how to play, and his high feel on film back that up.

Azuolas Tubelis — Forward, Arizona

Tubelis is a weird big man prospect. He’s not a traditional shot blocker, but he is a good defender, moving his feet well and possessing very good instincts

On offense, he’s a high feel player who has some good passing vision and nice form on his jump shot, although he hit just 29.5 percent of his 3s at Arizona. He has an almost nonexistent right hand, yet he is dominant offensively, scoring 19.8 points per game as a junior. 

Can a big man prospect who is not much of a rim protector, has a shaky shot and is one-handed dominant make it in the NBA? Domantas Sabonis had a similar profile and showed that it could be done.

Jalen Slawson — Forward, Furman

Slawson is a versatile scorer who is wildly efficient thanks to great touch on his shots. He has good feel and fantastic passing instincts, leading to pretty plays like this:

i just enjoy watching jalen slawson play, has such a fun flair to his game pic.twitter.com/2zqUrgkErh

— J. Kyle Mann (@jkylemann) March 2, 2023

Slawson is also a solid defender, racking up blocks and steals and moving his feet well. 

Slawson has become a bit of a Draft Twitter darling thanks to his sterling statistical profile and solid play this season. He has a very high skill level already. Will his statistics playing at Furman, a mid-major, translate?

Brandin Podziemski — Guard, Santa Clara

Podziemski is a 6-foot-5 sophomore out of Santa Clara who can flat-out score, averaging 19.9 points per game for Santa Clara last season. He has amazing touch on a floater that he can sling up from as far out as the free throw line. He’s a good shooter, hitting 43.8 percent of his 3s. His stock has been skyrocketing, and at this point in the process he's probably fallen out of sleeper category. 

Podziemski does have athletic and defensive concerns. He’s had trouble guarding and staying in front of players at the college level. He’s also in a much more ball-dominant role at Santa Clara than he will see in the NBA.

Still, he can flat-out ball and shoot lights out in a supporting role. That type of high feel scorer is a good archetype to bet on.