Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Horses, odds, expert picks & more for 2022 Triple Crown race

Grab your favourite hat and a refreshing mint julep, because it's almost time for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. And if you're the gambling type, it's just about time to head toward the ticket window to place some bets on this year's field of horses.

Per usual, 20 horses will be competing in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Seasoned gamblers know that the race can be hard to predict, but there are always a few colts that stand out from the crowd among the others.

This year, the field is stacked with a solid group of horses. This group doesn't feature a lot of horses that are going to push the pace and get out to an early lead; that could create an opportunity for an exciting finish if the closers only have to make up a few lengths on the back stretch.

Bet on the racing with TAB.

Who should be on your card during the 2022 Kentucky Derby? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets to win this year's run for the roses.

MORE: Full draw, positions for the Kentucky Derby 2022

Kentucky Derby odds 2022

Zandon ($4.60) is the favourite to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby. He joins Epicenter ($5) and Taiba ($8) as the only horses in the 20-participant field at single-figure odds. 

Below are the full odds for the Kentucky Derby — courtesy of TAB — as well as the starting gates for each horse running in 2022.

MORE: Why Medina Spirit was stripped of 2021 Kentucky Derby win

Kentucky Derby expert picks

The Kentucky Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race, so it's important to find a horse that has good enough stamina to win the event. As such, while pace-setting horses may be nice, they can fade down the stretch of this longer race. So, it's better to target horses that may hang back early and have good enough closing burst to win the race.

With that said, Mo Donegal ($11) looks like a nice option. His closing speed is second to none and he has been trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who has sent 59 horses to the Derby with two wins. The colt has finished top-3 in all five of his starts with three outright wins and two third-place finishes, so he has a proven track record of success, too.

Mo Donegal carries some risk, as he is prone to slow starts which could hurt him by running from the No. 1 gate. Still, his finishing speed will benefit him in a longer race and could give him an opportunity to win this on the stretch. Fletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will just have to make sure the horse is prepared to go a bit faster than usual at the jump to get in front of the pack.

Those scared off by Mo Donegal's starting gate could consider going with Messier ($11). He has never finished below second place in his six career starts with three wins and three runner-up finishes. The colt was trained by Bob Baffert before his suspension from Churchill Downs and will be ridden by jockey John Velasquez, who has won the Derby 3 times.

Messier tends to be a bit of a pace pusher, but he should have enough kick to win the race. It's just a matter of whether he'll have the stamina to finish the race. That’s the big question.

Those looking for a safer option can roll with Zandon ($4.60). He has a Derby-winning jockey in Flavian Prat and is running from the ever-favourable 10th gate, which has produced the second-most Derby winners since 1930. He has good closing speed and shouldn't expend too much of his energy chasing the pace early.

Meanwhile, those looking for more value can roll with Cyberknife ($18) as a sleeper. Cyberknife is ridden by Florent Geroux, who rode Mandaloun to a second-place finish at least year's Kentucky Derby but was elevated to first after the disqualification of Medina Spirit. Cyberknife's style of staying just off the pace before executing a late kick profiles similarly to Mandaloun, so that could bode well for him. So too could his recent win by nearly three lengths at a 1 1/8-mile race, as he proved he has the stamina needed to compete in the Derby.

What is the best post position in horse racing?

The best post position will vary by race and by the type of horse running in each spot. Typically, horses that like more space will prefer to be in high-numbered posts, as they can work more with their space to the outside. Plus, they don't have to be inside the gate as long.

Meanwhile, the shortest path to victory comes on the inner posts. As such, getting the No. 1 gate can be an advantage, but it can also lead to issues for more claustrophobic horses. Why? Because they not only have to wait in the gate longer, but they are also granted little space to maneuver on either side. So, if they get nervous, they may stray from the crowd and hang back during the race to find space.

As for the race, the Kentucky Derby has a wide distribution of winners, but some spots are more favourable than others. Horses from the No. 5 gate have won most frequently with 10 wins over the years, but the No. 10 gate has accounted for nine victories since the implementation of the starting gate. That could spell good news for Zandon and Smile Happy.

The No. 8 gate isn't a bad spot either, as eight Derby winners have come from there. It would have been nine if Medina Spirit, last year's original race winner, hadn't been disqualified for testing positive for a banned substance. 

Here is the complete list of Kentucky Derby winners at each post position since the starting gate was implemented in 1930:

Kentucky Derby winners by post position

The Kentucky Derby first implemented a starting gate in 1930. Since that time, every starting gate has produced a winning horse, with the exception of the No. 17 slot.

Since 2000, 10 of the winning horses have run from gates 5-10. Only two gates have produced four winners during that time: Gates 5 and 15.

Below is a list of all of the winners at each gate since 1930.

• 1 — (8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
• 2 — (7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
• 3 — (5) Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
• 4 — (5) Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941)
• 5 — (10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
• 6 — (2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
• 7 — (8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
• 8 — (8) Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934)
• 9 — (4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
• 10 — (9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
• 11 — (2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
• 12 — (3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
• 13 — (4) Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
• 14 — (2) Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950)
• 15 — (6) Authentic (2020); American Pharoah (2015); Orb (2013); Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
• 16 — (4) Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995)
• 17 — (0)
• 18 — (2) Country House (2019); Gato Del Sol (1982)
• 19 — (1) I’ll Have Another (2012)
• 20 — (1) Big Brown (2008)