Errol Spence Jr. and Terence Crawford have held a firm grip on boxing's welterweight division. With nobody left to face after each plowed through the division, they finally face off in an undisputed clash with every belt on the line.
Spence has been a pro since 2012, while Crawford started in 2008. Per BetMGM, Crawford is the -145 favorite, while Spence is the +130 underdog. Are the odds accurate, or do the stats tell a different story?
The Sporting News broke it down via By The Numbers.
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Spence vs. Crawford key boxing stats
Already undisputed at super lightweight, Crawford has knocked out 30 opponents in 39 fights. However, since joining welterweight, he has a 100% knockout rate. Spence has won 22 of 28 fights via knockout, all at welterweight, a 78.5% KO rate.
“The Truth” has eleven fewer fights on his resume (82 fewer rounds than Crawford), making him the fresher fighter. However, he has fought in fewer fights since 2019 due to a car crash and a detached retina. Crawford will have a two-inch reach advantage. Power could trump rounds and health.
"Bud's" opponents land the eighth-fewest punches per round with 7.6. He also ranks higher than Spence in power, with a power connect percentage of 46.2% (45.2% for Spence) while having a connect percentage of 34.7% (30% for Spence).
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The quality of the opponent and time in the ring can be a factor. Spence faced Yordenis Ugas, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, and Mikey Garcia, all former champions. Crawford faced mandatory challengers David Avenesyan, Kell Brook, Shawn Porter, and Egidijus Kavaliauskas, with Porter already 0-1 against Spence.
Stats are a factor, but the action in the ring is what matters at the end of the day.
History is on the line. Which fighter will prevail in one of boxing’s biggest fights?