You think it’s hard making the Final Four. Try making out who’s going to be in the next one more than a year before everyone gathers in the Arizona desert and tries to figure out the fastest way to get to Phoenix State Farm Stadium. (Pro tip: There isn’t one).
Yes, this is our annual Way-Too-Early Top 25, which is presented even a week earlier than usual. We do not know a lot of the players who might return to college basketball (thanks Armando for the early decision!), but we can be certain it is more than would have done so in the days before Name/Image/Likeness payments. We do not know how many will return to their particular teams.
We do know, however, we faced the same obstacles a year ago and didn’t do all that badly. Nine of our Top 18 teams in the article that posted from New Orleans on the day of Kansas’ victory over North Carolina for the 2022 NCAA Championship reached the 2023 Sweet 16. Each of the teams that received No. 1 seeds in the 2023 edition of March Madness was ranked by the Sporting News (No. 3 Kansas, No. 7 Houston, No. 18 Alabama and No. 22 Purdue). Almost no one else ranked the Boilers. And 80 percent made it to the NCAA Tournament.
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Here’s our first stab at the 2023-24 Top 25:
1. Connecticut
2023 season: 28-8, NCAA Elite Eight
Overview: Save for a still mysterious plunge around the start of the New Year that contained 75 percent of the Huskies’ defeats this season, coach Dan Hurley has the UConn program back. And not just back to where it was winning improbable titles a decade ago, from No. 7 seed in 2014 or from ninth place in a packed Big East in 2011. The Huskies are back among the elite, to the brink of entering the perpetual conversation: Is UConn a blueblood?
Surely you remember those days. It has not been that long.
The Huskies climbed as high as No. 2 in the AP poll in December and stood No. 1 in the KenPom rankings entering the Elite Eight. In their rotation, only a single player – shooter Joey Calcaterra – has played a fifth season. It seems likely guard Andre Jackson will enter the NBA Draft, and perhaps there he can convince teams he is worthy of the first-round selection most analysts – including Kyle Irving of the Sporting News -- currently insist is unlikely.
If he stays, and if big man Adama Sanogo follows the same course as many other collegiate big men and remains, my goodness what a team this could be. If either leaves, UConn has freshmen Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan playing superbly and is bringing in the nation’s No. 4 recruiting class. The jewel of that class is 6-7 Stephon Castle, who has point guard skill and is ranked the nation’s No. 10 prospect.
MORE: Why Bill Murray is a big UConn fan
2. UCLA
2023 season: 31-6, Pac-12 regular season champion, NCAA Sweet 16
Overview: With some better luck, the Bruins still might be playing next weekend. They were down two starters when facing Gonzaga and still managed to build a 15-point advantage and to fight back from a late deficit to hold a lead in the final 15 seconds. Imagine if they’d made it all the way to the end with Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona in one piece.
They could have much of this group in place for 2023-24, most likely subtracting the very substantial presence of All-America forward Jaime Jaquez and definitely the soft shooting touch of David Singleton, who used his fifth year in 2022-23 and leaves having played more games than any Bruin in history.
Amari Bailey is ready to progress toward genuine stardom, and Bona toward interior dominance. The Bruins already have signed two top-70 prep prospects and figure to be aggressively (but selectively) active in recruiting from the transfer portal.
3. Duke
2023 season: 27-9, ACC Tournament champion, NCAA second round
Overview: The Blue Devils did not land quite a 2022-level class in Jon Scheyer’s second lap around the recruiting circuit as head coach, but they came pretty doggone close. Led by 6-8 forward Mackenzie Mgbako, there’s a player to replace pretty much any current Devil who chooses to turn professional except at point guard. But that's not an issue with Tyrese Proctor's announcement that he is coming back to Durham.
It seems inevitable the Devils will lose star freshman Kyle Filipowski, who showed so impressively at the offensive end this season, and possibly/probably also shot-blocker Dereck Lively.
4. Purdue
2023 season: 29-6, Big Ten regular season and tournament champion, NCAA First round
Overview: You are weary of the Boilers compiling extraordinary regular seasons and then washing out against lower-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament? Sorry. And lighten up. It’s been three years. Mike Krzyzewski lost to a No. 15 seed in 2012 and a No. 14 in 2014 and then went out in 2015 and won the NCAA championship. Matt Painter’s last NCAA trip before this run of misery ended a single free throw short of the Final Four at the South Region final in 2019.
So how about we stop pretending this circumstance is eternal?
This Boilers team will be more experienced, with more physical maturity and ideally more dynamism with freshman Myles Colvin arriving and potentially more shooting with redshirt freshman Camden Heide becoming active.
All of this is dependent on the Sporting News Player of the Year Zach Edey returning for another season, but every indication is he will remain a Boiler in 2023-24.
BENDER: Purdue deals with shock of suffering historic upset
5. Marquette
2023 season: 29-7, Big East regular season and tournament champion, NCAA second round
Overview: The Golden Eagles won a league that produced three Sweet 16 teams despite featuring not a single senior in their rotation, let alone a fifth-year player. After what we’ve seen through the first several rounds of the NCAA Tournament, that seems almost impossible.
What might the Golden Eagles achieve if they’re all back?
The combination of point guard Tyler Kolek, shooting guard Kam Jones and big man Oso Ighodaro ranks with the most dynamite offensive trios, not in terms of flat production but more so in how challenging it is to defend all three of them at once. It would be unreasonable to exclude from praise do-everything forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper – known within the sport simply as “O-Max” – who might be as effective a glue guy as there is in Division I men’s basketball.
Marquette recruited three solid top-150 prospects to complement this group, including dynamic 6-3 combo guard Tre Norman, who might be the piece the Golden Eagles need to take their defense from good to great.
6. Kentucky
2023 season: 22-12, NCAA second round
Overview: UK almost always is among the most difficult teams to project in advance of the season, because so much of the team’s potential is in the hands of high school prospects who have yet to compete in the college game. And that’s become more complicated by the presence of “super seniors” in so many places who exacerbate the differential between the youngest and most experienced players in the college game.
The Wildcats might have some of that experience themselves, however, depending on who among the team’s veterans chooses to remain for next season. And the freshmen represent Kentucky’s best on-paper class since, at least, their 2011 class included the top two prospects in Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. This time, it’s three of the top four players and four of the top 10.
These are the names to know, in addition to those you already do: Justin Edwards (6-7 wing, No. 2 prospect); D.J. Wagner (6-3 guard, No. 3); Aaron Bradshaw (7-0 center, No. 4), Robert Dillingham (6-2 point guard, No. 9) and Reed Sheppard (6-3 shooting guard, No. 30).
7. Arkansas
2023 season: 22-14, NCAA Sweet 16
Overview: It is impossible not to wonder what this past Arkansas season might have been were it not for the two major injuries that completely dismantled the Razorbacks: first to guard Nick Smith, which cost him 19 games, and then to Trevon Brazile, which kept him from all but nine. Brazile would be wise to return to the Razorbacks, as he is projected to be a second-round pick and had little opportunity to convince scouts of his potential value. Smith will definitely be gone, and fans will never really know what they missed, but may not miss him for long with five-star point Layden Blocker arriving to manage the position. The coaching staff also is bringing in a 6-10 five-star center, Baye Fall, to make the team even more fearsome as a defensive outfit. The SEC does not seem like it will be a fun place to play next winter.
8. Creighton
2023 season: 24-12, NCAA Elite Eight
Overview: Maybe the problem with the exorbitant expectations the Bluejays encountered this season were they arrived a bit prematurely. The only senior in their lineup was transfer Baylor Scheiermann, and he can return next season. Wings Trey Alexander and Arthur Kaluma are only sophomores, same as point guard Ryan Nembhard. Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is a junior who could play two more season if he wished. (Big East opponents are wishing he does not). This team had great moments during the season but did not truly arrive until the NCAA Tournament commenced and they found themselves in a boom-or-bust first-round game against a dangerous NC State team. They responded with a series of consistently outstanding performances.
They could respond next year by doing this wire-to-wire.
By then, freshman Mason Miller – son of former NBA star Mike Miller, coincidentally the victim of a famous Creighton March Madness upset – could be ready to contribute from the perimeter. The coaches also may search for some depth in the transfer portal.
9. Alabama
2023 season: 31-6, SEC regular season and tournament champion, NCAA Sweet 16
Overview: The Crimson Tide will be searching for a true No. 1 scoring option with freshman Brandon Miller expected to depart for the opportunity to be an NBA lottery pick, but it might more problematic for opponents searching for a way to score baskets against the Alabama defense.
The Tide finished in the top 5 in defensive efficiency for the second time in three seasons, and if as many current players return as seems likely, they’ll make it three of four. Point guard Jahvon Quinerly can return for another season to make the offense function at a high level even if no obvious lead scorer emerges. That should be enough to make the Tide one of the SEC’s top teams and an Elite Eight threat.
DECOURCY: Saban sends not-so-subtle message to Alabama basketball
10. Gonzaga
2023 season: 31-6, WCC regular season and tournament champion, NCAA Elite Eight
Overview: There were a lot of farewells presented to Drew Timme as he departed the Zags’ one-sided West Region final loss to Connecticut on Saturday night. And maybe he feels like he’s had enough of playing for Gonzaga and just wants to try something different. From the estimates I’ve encountered of his NIL earnings, though, it’s hard to imagine he’d do as well in any professional opportunity available to him. So I station the Zags here because I’m not sure he’ll go (which might drop them a smidge) or stay (which might lift them to the neighborhood of the top five). Of the team’s other key contributors, only Rasir Bolton does not have at least one extra season available. It probably wouldn’t hurt to add a significant wing player in the transfer market, because Julian Strawther might find the NBA Draft welcoming. Either way, this is Gonzaga. They’re going to find a way to be good.
MORE: Timme reflects on disappointing farewell from NCAAs
11. Michigan State
2023 season: 21-13, NCAA Sweet 16
12. Arizona
2023 season: 28-7, Pac-12 tournament champion, NCAA first round
13. Kansas
2023 season: 28-8, Big 12 regular season champion, NCAA second round
14. Miami
2023 season: 28-7, ACC regular season champion, NCAA Elite Eight
15. Florida Atlantic
2023 season: 35-3, Conference USA regular season and tournament champion, NCAA Final Four
16. Houston
2023 season: 33-4, NCAA Sweet 16
17. Baylor
2023 season: 23-11, NCAA second round
18. Tennessee
2023 season: 25-11, NCAA Sweet 16
19. Virginia
2023 season: 25-8, ACC regular season champion, NCAA first round
20. TCU
2023 season: 22-13, NCAA second round
21. Texas
2023 season: 29-8, Big 12 tournament champion, NCAA Elite Eight
22. North Carolina
2023 season: 20-13
23. Northwestern
2023 season: 22-12, NCAA second round
24. Auburn
2023 season: 21-13, NCAA second round
25. Xavier
2023 season: 27-10, NCAA Sweet 16