Boxing fans have waited patiently for the Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford superfight and it will finally take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 29. The 12-round bout, plus undercard action, will be broadcast by Showtime PPV in the U.S.
Just like Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia a few months ago, this showdown has captured the public's imagination. Spence, the IBF, WBA, and WBC welterweight champ, and WBO titleholder Crawford have a combined record of 67 wins, 0 losses, and 52 knockouts. Elite level for years, one of their reigns will end while the other will be named the undisputed king at 147 pounds.
“He's in his prime. I'm in my prime. We are the two best fighters in the welterweight division. The winner on Saturday night will be the best fighter in boxing,” Spence confidently said at grand arrivals earlier in the week.
MORE: How to bet Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford
Who will come out on top? Should the winner of this fight usurp Naoya Inoue on the mythical pound-for-pound rankings?
Sporting News writers Dom Farrell, Tom Gray, Andreas Hale, Tom Naghten, Ben Miller, Albert Perez, and Dan Yanofsky joined forces to break down one of the biggest fights in boxing history.
Errol Spence Jr vs. Terence Crawford predictions, expert picks
Dom Farrell, Boxing Writer
It is a tough pick to make, but it ultimately comes down to the difference between an unquestionably elite talent and a man who might come to be regarded as the finest of his era. Had this fight taken place a few years ago — as it should have done, but boxing’s gonna boxing — then it would have been hard not to lean towards Spence as the more natural welterweight. But since then, Crawford has grown into the division, stringing together seven consecutive stoppage wins since stepping up as undisputed super lightweight champion.
Spence’s disappointing lack of activity since his career-best win over Kell Brook also feels unhelpful. He’s boxed six times in six years, and there's that hellacious car accident. ‘The Truth’ has boxed twice since dicing with death while under the influence and pulled up well enough. But Crawford’s combination of sublime skills and spiteful punching is another matter entirely for a 33-year-old who might be in slight decline.
Spence will look to establish his jab and use his physical advantages early, potentially banking a few rounds against a notoriously slow starter. But expect Crawford to come on strong through the middle rounds and perhaps come close to scoring a stoppage down the stretch.
Pick: Terence Crawford via unanimous decision
MORE: Remembering Errol Spence Jr.'s infamous car crash
Tom Gray, Boxing Deputy Editor
I’ve always liked Crawford in this matchup, and to simplify it, I just believe he’s the better fighter.
Spence is brilliant, don’t get me wrong, but Crawford's the one sprinkled with magic dust. He can do it all: box, fight, lead, counter, and switch. He can turn it on early, or he can turn it on late. He can take you out with head shots, or he can take you out with body shots.
I don’t think you know how good Crawford is until you’re in there with him. Unfortunately for Spence, I don’t think natural size is the equalizer here. In fact, he may have overstayed his welcome at 147 pounds, which could come back to haunt him.
I like “Bud” big in this fight.
Pick: Terence Crawford via unanimous decision
Andreas Hale, Combat Senior Writer
This fight is impossible to pick because neither has shown much weakness in their respective careers. However, I'm leaning toward Spence because of two reasons: His jab and his size.
MORE: How much have Errol Spence Jr. and Terence Crawford made in their careers?
Crawford is a notoriously slow starter who has often climbed back into fights in the middle to late rounds due to his brilliant ability to adjust. The problem will be that Spence's size, strength, and underrated jab will make things difficult for Crawford to navigate. I fully anticipate this will be an exciting fight where both will have their respective moments, but Spence will bank enough rounds early and fend off Crawford's hellish surge late to take a split decision in a thrilling battle.
Pick: Errol Spence Jr. via split decision
Ben Miller, Boxing Writer
Spence has broken down a disparate range of elite opponents and holds the size advantage, but Crawford shares his opponent's riddle-solving ring acuity and shades a fight of micro-strategies. Spence's ring absence is also a concern, although he was out longer before overwhelming Yordenis Ugas more than 15 months ago.
Pick: Terence Crawford via unanimous decision
Tom Naghten, SN Australia Senior Editor
It’s hard to imagine either of these guys losing a fight, but the more I think about it, the more I lean toward a Crawford victory. While neither man has been in a fight of this magnitude, Crawford’s 17 world title fights, compared to Spence’s seven, have to count for something. I expect the versatility of “Bud” to be the difference in this one - he’s comfortable wherever the fight goes and can swing the momentum or change the pace of the bout, seemingly as he pleases. The Omaha native hasn’t required the judges since 2016, stopping his past ten opponents, and we’re tipping a late-round finish in this one.
Pick: Terence Crawford via KO/TKO (round ten)
Albert Perez, Boxing Writer
At plain sight, it’s difficult to pick a winner. Both guys are undefeated elite-level talents. But when you really dig in, you can see why Crawford is favored to win. Spence is the bigger guy, but how sturdy is? Trainer Calvin Ford indicated that the winner would be the fighter who has been hurt less throughout his career. Spence has not suffered any serious damage in the ring, but in 2019 he was involved in a horrific car accident. He wouldn't suffer any broken bones, but he did suffer serious injuries. Spence's almost career-ending retinal tear in 2021 stemmed from the crash.
"The Truth" has had two fights since: against Danny Garcia and Yordenis Ugas. But they are not Crawford. "Bud" is going to test Spence's resistance. He has the skills and speed that can methodically pick Spence apart. And Crawford also has the close-out power to put him away.
Pick: Terence Crawford via KO/TKO (round ten)
Daniel Yanofsky, Combat Editor
The fight can either be a brawl similar to Hagler-Hearns or a technical classic. It all comes down to who the better boxer is. And right now, that's Terence Crawford.
The Omaha-born Crawford's opponents land the eighth-fewest punches per round with 7.6. "Bud" also ranks higher than Spence in power, with a power connect percentage of 46.2% (45.2% for Spence) while having a connect percentage of 34.7% (30% for Spence). Crawford's activity, which includes ten wins in a row via knockout, also plays a factor. Spence has only fought twice since beating Shawn Porter in September 2019, whether due to a hellacious car crash or a detached retina. Meanwhile, Crawford has fought four times since.
Spence is notorious for using his jab to his advantage. Crawford is notorious for being a slow starter. Maybe Spence gives him trouble in the first few rounds, halting any plan of attack. However, as we have seen, Crawford kicks it into overdrive in the later rounds. He will look to attack like only he can, and could even force a knockdown. To prove he is the better fighter, Crawford needs to make a statement, which is not impossible.
Pick: Terence Crawford via KO/TKO (round ten)
Spence vs. Crawford is the biggest fight since…
Dom Farrell: Fury vs. Usyk… oh, hang on… yeah, idiots. This is boxing’s biggest night since Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin II due to the combination of the best fighting the best in a division that lends itself to crossover appeal that doesn’t come with blockbusters in the lighter weights, such as this week’s high-class showdown between Naoya Inoue and Stephen Fulton. Speaking of Canelo and GGG, no one would complain about a two or three-fight series where Spence and Crawford are concerned.
Tom Gray: In terms of historical significance, this is the biggest showdown since Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao. Welterweight supremacy is at stake, and it’s a matchup we’ve waited years to see. However, I don’t expect Spence vs. Crawford to break any records simply because their personalities haven’t crossed over to the mainstream. Numerically, I don’t foresee this event besting the "Tank" vs. Garcia clash, which was a non-title affair.
MORE: Why is Terence Crawford called 'Bud'?
Andreas Hale: Spence vs. Crawford is the biggest fight since Sergey Kovalev vs. Andre Ward 1. The metric I'm using has less to do with PPV sales and more with two top-five pound-for-pound fighters who are undefeated and squaring off for divisional supremacy. Canelo vs. GGG also falls into this category, but Spence-Crawford is more anticipated than either of those battles. It may not outdo Davis vs. Garcia in terms of PPV sales, so it'll end up the biggest PPV since that fight.
Ben Miller: Spence vs. Crawford is the biggest fight since Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao. There's a reminiscent sense of anticipation, and these unbeaten welterweights deserve greater respect for meeting when they are closer to their athletic prime. Their relatively negligible commercial pull feels reflective of the disproportionate importance of fighter profiles outside of the ring.
Tom Naghten: In my opinion, this is boxing’s most significant clash since the last blockbuster at 147 pounds - Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
On that occasion, the IBF belt was the only title not up for grabs. This time, all the marbles at welterweight are on the line for the winner. While it certainly won’t capture the public’s imagination like that fight did, it’s a bout that has had years of build-up and countless unanswered questions going into it.
Albert Perez: Spence vs. Crawford is the biggest fight since the first Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin fight in 2017. The undisputed title at 160 wasn’t on the line, but you had two elite-level guys on a collision course for pound-for-pound supremacy. It may not have had a wide appeal within the American boxing scene as Spence vs. Crawford does, but it was a big deal in boxing in general.
Financially it was an outstanding success. The fight is the best-selling PPV of the post-Floyd Mayweather era, with 1,300,000 buys. And it drew a live gate of $27 million at the T-Mobile Arena. By comparison, the highly hyped Davis vs. Garcia fight in April, which did have mainstream appeal, generated a live gate of $22.8 million at the same venue and 1,200,000 PPV buys.
Daniel Yanofsky: I may be biased, but Spence vs. Crawford is the biggest fight since Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano. Both are similar: two dominant fighters of their era, competing in a bout years in the making for the status of undisputed champion. Taylor and Serrano had a record-breaking historic fight inside Madison Square Garden, with Spence and Crawford looking to do the same inside the T-Mobile Arena.
If we are talking about popularity, Canelo vs. GGG and Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao come to mind. Spence vs. Crawford will be similar to Mayweather-Pacquiao in terms of star power, while it compares to Canelo-GGG when talking about the best vs. the best.
True or False: The winner of Spence vs. Crawford should move to No. 1 on boxing’s P4P list
Dom Farrell: Crawford: true; Spence: false. "Bud" would be on top of the mountain, having cleaned out a second weight class as a three-division champion. It means a greater body of work in terms of P4P credentials. Spence would be locked-in top five, at least with a win, but a man with his frame and skills could perhaps test himself at 154 and 160 to get to the summit.
Tom Gray: The winner could conceivably become the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, but that’s not guaranteed. Naoya Inoue is there on merit, and a controversial decision or an unexciting win will not move him off his perch. We need something exciting in Vegas – nothing else will suffice.
MORE: Fightin' Words: Fulton vs. Inoue or Spence vs. Crawford?
Andreas Hale: True and False. It's not a given based on Naoya Inoue's dismantling of Stephen Fulton. If either Crawford or Spence wins definitively, they'll likely move to the top of the P4P list. But if there's any controversy, Inoue holds that top spot.
Ben Miller: Irrespective of the outcome, there are near-unarguable cases to be made for both the winner becoming pound-for-pound number one and Naoya Inoue holding an iron glove on that position. Spence and Crawford's division is deeper than Inoue's bantamweight pool, but only a convincing result will make the debate less divided.
Tom Naghten: False. The winner won’t automatically deserve the top spot on the pound-for-pound list. That’s not to say that a comprehensive victory for either party won’t be enough to earn that position. However, after Naoya Inoue’s efforts earlier in the week, it’s going to take something special to knock him off that perch.
Albert Perez: True. The winner of Spence vs. Crawford should move to No. 1 on the P4P list. And if Spence wins, he will have a win against a generational talent in his prime who is already a shoo-in for the International Boxing Hall of Fame. You can’t deny him the distinction with "Bud’s" name in his win column. If Crawford wins, how can you deny a two-time undisputed champion in two different divisions that P4P distinction? A win against an elite fighter in Spence would round out a formidable resume for "Bud" that includes wins against guys like Shawn Porter, Viktor Postol, and Ricky Burns.
Naoya Inoue is a magical fighter, but his resume would look a little light compared to the winner of Spence vs. Crawford.
Daniel Yanofsky: Yes and No. After Naoya Inoue’s near-perfect performance against Stephen Fulton just a few days ago, Spence and Crawford will have to elevate their game to reach top-tier status. If either fighter has a performance that breaks the internet, they may very well top Inoue. Regardless, the winner of this fight and Inoue will compete for the top two spots, resulting in plenty of debate. In other words, just another day in boxing.