In a year defined by parity, picking the four No. 1 overall seeds was a fairly easy task for the selection committee. Despite losing three starters from last year’s NCAA Championship team, Kansas rode Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick to a regular season title in the toughest league in college hoops this year.
Houston and legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson locked opponents down on D and rolled through the AAC.
Consensus All-American Zach Edey was unstoppable and carried Purdue to a Big Ten regular season and tournament championship.
Clouded by controversy surrounding the involvement of superstar Brandon Miller in a homicide, the Alabama Crimson Tide look to have the easiest path of any No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four in Houston.
But it is never that easy, is it?
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Alabama will manage to squeak into the Final Four, facing a very underseeded Duke team. This isn’t your daddy’s offense-first Blue Devils. Built on incredible length and stifling defense, the Blue Devils crack the code and neutralize Miller.
Houston got arguably the toughest draw of any No. 1 seed. Questions surround the health of star guard Marcus Sasser and the Cougars could face Auburn in Round 2 in Birmingham, Ala., in what would feel like a road game. In the end Texas, a team peaking at the right time, will roll through the Midwest and beat Indiana in a matchup filled with athletes to reach the Final Four.
The West region boasts 5 of the top 11 overall teams in KenPom rankings. If Kansas can make it out, this will be arguably Bill Self’s greatest accomplishment during his time in Lawrence. KU knocks off Texas in what will be one of the best Final Four games in recent memory.
That sets up a rematch of the 1991 National Championship. Kansas and Duke, two of the bluest of blue bloods. Duke simply can’t score the ball well enough to beat the balanced Jayhawks who become the first repeat champion since the Florida Gators in 2006-07.
MORE EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette)
March Madness predictions 2023
South Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Alabama over 16 Southeast Missouri State
8 Maryland over 9 West Virginia
12 Charleston over 5 San Diego State
13 Furman over 4 Virginia
6 Creighton over 11 N.C. State
3 Baylor over 14 UC Santa Barbara
10 Utah State over 7 Missouri
2 Arizona over 15 Princeton
SECOND ROUND
1 Alabama over 8 Maryland
12 Charleston over 13 Furman
6 Creighton over 3 Baylor
10 Utah State over. 2 Arizona
SWEET 16
1 Alabama over 12 Charleston
6 Creighton over 10 Utah State
ELITE EIGHT
1 Alabama over 6 Creighton
Creighton began the year as a top 10 team, thanks in large part to point guard Ryan Nembhard and the addition of vaunted transfer Baylor Scheierman. The Bluejays struggled in the middle part of the season, but have a favorable path to the Regionals facing teams in Baylor and Utah State that figure to struggle defensively.
That sets up a matchup against Alabama in Louisville. Creighton can throw multiple defenders at Miller and has the advantage in the backcourt, but Miller is a transcendent type of talent whose name will go down with the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Richard Hamilton and Glen Rice. Only his team won’t win it all.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
East Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Purdue over 16 Texas Southern
8 Memphis over 9 Florida Atlantic
5 Duke over 12 Oral Roberts
13 Louisiana over 4 Tennessee
11 Providence over 6 Kentucky
3 Kansas State over 14 Montana State
7 Michigan State over 10 USC
2 Marquette over 15 Vermont
SECOND ROUND
8 Memphis over 1 Purdue
5 Duke over 13 Louisiana
3 Kansas State over 11 Providence
2 Marquette over 7 Michigan State
SWEET 16
5 Duke over 8 Memphis
3 Kansas State over 2 Marquette
ELITE EIGHT
5 Duke over 3 Kansas State
Arguably no region has more fascinating first and second round matchups than the East. Purdue struggled against pressure all year long, including in the narrow win over Penn State to capture the Big Ten tournament championship. A round two matchup against either Memphis or Florida Atlantic would be a challenge for the Boilers, who become the first No. 1 seed to bow out.
The button of the bracket belongs to the guards. Kansas State, picked to finish last in the Big 12, rolls into the Elite 8 but can’t overcome Duke’s size.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Midwest Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Houston over 16 Northern Kentucky
9 Auburn over 8 Iowa
5 Miami over 12 Drake
4 Indiana over 13 Kent State
11 Mississippi State over 6 Iowa State
3 Xavier over 14 Kennesaw State
7 Texas A&M over 10 Penn State
2 Texas over 15 Colgate
SECOND ROUND
1 Houston over 9 Auburn
4 Indiana over 5 Miami
3 Xavier over 11 Mississippi State
2 Texas over 7 Texas A&M
SWEET 16
4 Indiana over 1 Houston
2 Texas over 3 Xavier
ELITE EIGHT
2 Texas over 4 Indiana
Rodney Terry not only held the Longhorns together following the dismissal of Chris Beard, he pushed them to a second-place regular season finish and a Big 12 tournament title. With a team made up almost exclusively of transfers, Texas has a favorable road to the Final Four. If Indiana can get out of the first round against a really good Kent State team, the Hoosiers have a major size advantage until they face the Longhorns.
Christian Bishop and Dylan Disu neutralize Trayce Jackson-Davis and send the Horns to H-Town.
TSN AWARDS: Edey Player of Year | Terry Coach of Year | All-America team
West Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas over 16 Howard
8 Arkansas over 9 Illinois
12 VCU over 5 St. Mary's
4 UConn over 13 Iona
6 TCU over 11 Arizona State
3 Gonzaga over 14 Grand Canyon
10 Boise State over 7 Northwestern
2 UCLA over 15 UNC-Asheville
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 8 Arkansas
12 VCU over 4 UConn
6 TCU over 3 Gonzaga
10 Boise State over 2 UCLA
SWEET 16
1 Kansas over 12 VCU
6 TCU over 10 Boise State
ELITE EIGHT
1 Kansas over 6 TCU
Kansas has, without question, the most difficult path to the Final Four of any No. 1 seed. Every single game will be a battle, starting in the second round with a young, athletic Arkansas team that will go YOLO similar to how Eric Mussleman’s Nevada teams played in the NCAA Tournament, or an Illinois team with two all conference caliber transfers from the Big 12 who know KU well.
Ironically, the second round matchup might end up being the toughest test for KU. On the bottom of the bracket fellow Big 12 foe TCU has one of the easiest roads to the Elite 8. The Horned Frogs blew the doors off KU at Allen Fieldhouse and when focused are as good defensively as any team in the country.
Gradey Dick hits a 3 to beat TCU and keep KU’s hopes for a repeat alive.