The Bills are trying to make the NFL playoffs for the fifth consecutive season under coach Sean McDermott. They are also looking to make it four straight AFC East titles. After a disappointing first half and beyond, they have a good chance of extending both streaks during the final week of the 2023 regular season.
Here's looking at where Buffalo stands in the AFC playoff picture going into Week 18's Sunday night game at division-leading Miami and how it can qualify for the postseason:
LIVE: Updated NFL standings, clinching scenarios for Week 18
Bills playoff picture 2024
The Bills are at 10-6, putting them in the No. 6 seed and second wild-card spot. They are wedged right in between the No. 5 Browns (11-5) and No. 7 Steelers (10-7). However, their options are down to the No. 2 seed or the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
Buffalo is in full control and doesn't need any help to make the playoffs should it take care of its own business on the field. Here's breaking down what needs to happen for the Bills to qualify either as East winners or at least maintain their wild-card berth.
How the Bills can win the AFC East in Week 18
The Bills beat the Dolphins. This is the first and only step for Buffalo to take another title, clipping Miami in the finale. That would improve the Bills' record to 11-6, matching the Dolphins' final mark. The Bills would own the tiebreaker from having the season head-to-head sweep.
By winning the division, the Bills would jump up to the No. 2 seed behind the Ravens (12-3), displacing the Dolphins. At 11-5, there's a chance the Bills can be tied with the AFC West-winning Chiefs, the current No. 3 seed, but the Bills also own the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Chiefs.
How the Bills can fall back on an AFC wild-card berth in Week 18
The Bills tie ....
- ... and the Jaguars lose or
- ... and the Texans tie the Colts.
The Bills, with a tie, would improve to 10-6-1, but they would lose the division to the 11-5-1 Dolphins. Buffalo getting to 10-6-1 means it will be fine for a wild card if either Pittsburgh or Jacksonville falls to 9-8. If Houston and Indianapolis draw, both would be 9-7-1, both still behind Buffalo.
The Bills lose ...
- ...and the Jaguars lose or
- ...and the Texans-Colts game doesn't end in a tie
The Bills can still make the playoffs with a loss and falling to 10-7. The key there is a Jaguars loss and either the Texans or Colts lose to fall to 9-8, with the Texans-Colts winner improving to 10-7 to get in as AFC South champions over the Jaguars. The Bills would then stay in the playoff picture and sneak in.
Can the Bills miss the playoffs?
The stakes are high for Buffalo, with a wide range of outcomes, from nailing down to No. 2 to falling completely out of the AFC playoff picture and missing the playoffs. For that to happen, Jaguars would need to win in Week 18, setting up a must-win scenario for the Bills in Miami on "Sunday Night Football."